Eredivisie · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK
Full-time: PEC Zwolle 4–1 Go Ahead Eagles (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK). Before kick-off the model gave PEC Zwolle a 28% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 1% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick away (49%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (85%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (65%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (57%)Incorrect
- Both teams to score: pick yes (61%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (77%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:15 UK): PEC Zwolle 28% · Draw 23% · Go Ahead Eagles 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.41–1.93. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Zwolle vs Go Ahead pre-match preview
Zwolle (15th, 7 pts) host Go Ahead (9th, 11 pts) in the Eredivisie. Zwolle have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLDL) and Go Ahead 4 points from 5 (DDDDL). Go Ahead: both teams scored in each of their last 12 league games.
Our model favours Go Ahead at 49% to Zwolle's 28%. Expected goals are 1.41 for Zwolle and 1.93 for Go Ahead, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 61%, against 72% across the Eredivisie. In their last 4 meetings, Zwolle didn't win any, Go Ahead won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?
Go Ahead Eagles are favoured at 49%, but the draw and a PEC Zwolle win together still account for 51%. Recent form: PEC Zwolle LLLDLW, Go Ahead Eagles DDDDLW (latest first).
Zwolle lost 4 of 5 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 65% and Under 2.5 is 35%.
Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Go Ahead away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 85% | 15% | 1.18 |
| 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | 1.54 |
| 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | 2.33 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: PEC Zwolle score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and Go Ahead Eagles in about 85%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 9 Go Ahead games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.39 |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 49% | 2.03 |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.85 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.3 total goals.
| PEC \ Go | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 5% | 10% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Zwolle and Go Ahead played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Go Ahead: both teams scored in each of their last 12 league games.
- Go Ahead: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
- Go Ahead have not won in their last 6 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Zwolle and Go Ahead.
How Zwolle and Go Ahead compare this season
| Stat | Zwolle (home, 5) | Go Ahead (away, 5) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% (4/5) | 100% (5/5) | 91% |
| Over 2.5 | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% (3/5) | 80% (4/5) | 63% |
| BTTS | 40% (2/5) | 100% (5/5) | 72% |
| Win % | 20% (1/5) | 0% (0/5) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.92 |
| Goals against per game | 2.80 | 3.00 | 1.92 |
Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zwolle | 15 | 7 | 9 |
| Go Ahead | 9 | 11 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Zwolle 0 wins, 2 draws, Go Ahead 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 5 Apr 2026 | Eredivisie | Go Ahead v Zwolle | 5–0 |
| Sun, 21 Sept 2025 | Eredivisie | Zwolle v Go Ahead | 0–2 |
| Sun, 11 May 2025 | Eredivisie | Zwolle v Go Ahead | 1–1 |
| Sun, 3 Nov 2024 | Eredivisie | Go Ahead v Zwolle | 2–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Zwolle v Go Ahead?
- Our model makes Go Ahead the more likely winner at 49%: Zwolle 28%, draw 23%, Go Ahead 49%. Zwolle lost 4 of 5 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Zwolle v Go Ahead?
- Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 4 of 5 Go Ahead away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Zwolle and Go Ahead played recently?
- Latest first: Zwolle LLLDL, Go Ahead DDDDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- PEC Zwolle
- Go Ahead Eagles
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 63% | 20% | 17% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 59% |
17:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 36% | 24% | 39% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 60% |
20:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 34% | 25% | 41% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.574%✕ | 45%✓ | 27%✕ | 29%✕ | 48%✕ | 74%✕ | 26%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.580%✓ | 53%✕ | 27%✕ | 20%✓ | 41%✓ | 68%✓ | 20%✕ | 48%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.587%✓ | 48%✓ | 22%✕ | 30%✕ | 68%✕ | 87%✓ | 46%✕ | 60%✕ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.586%✓ | 22%✕ | 21%✓ | 56%✕ | 66%✓ | 86%✓ | 44%✓ | 60%✓ |
FT · Premier LgPremier League Bournemouth2 | U3.575%✓ | 54%✓ | 25%✕ | 21%✕ | 47%✕ | 73%✓ | 25%✕ | 54%✕ |