Willem II Tilburg vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden prediction

Eredivisie · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK

Willem II Tilburg vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK): Willem II Tilburg 36% · Draw 24% · SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.55–1.61. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Willem II vs Cambuur preview

Willem II (18th, 2 pts) host Cambuur (14th, 9 pts) in the Eredivisie. Willem II have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLLD) and Cambuur 9 points from 5 (DWDWD), so Cambuur arrive in clearly better form. Willem II have not won in their last 26 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Willem II 36%, Cambuur 39%. Expected goals are 1.55 for Willem II and 1.61 for Cambuur, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 61%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Willem II Tilburg vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden?

This is close to a coin flip: Willem II Tilburg 36%, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 39%, with the draw at 24%. Recent form: Willem II Tilburg LLLLDL, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden DWDWDL (latest first).

Willem II lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

Willem II Tilburg

36%

Draw

24%

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden

39%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Willem II games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.63
3.5 goals	39%	61%	2.57

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: Willem II Tilburg score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 7 of 9 Willem II games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.66
No	40%	2.51

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Willem II Tilburg win	36%	2.74
Draw	24%	4.12
SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden win	39%	2.55
Over 2.5	61%	1.63
Under 2.5	39%	2.58

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Willem II Tilburg goals (rows) × SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden goals (columns)
Willem \ SC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	6%	11%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	7%	4%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-2

2-1

2-2

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Willem II and Cambuur played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Willem II, last 5

Willem II, last 5 at home

Cambuur, last 5

Cambuur, last 5 away

Current streaks

Willem II have not won in their last 26 league games.
Cambuur are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Willem II have lost each of their last 4 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Willem II and Cambuur.

How Willem II and Cambuur compare this season

Stat	Willem II (home, 4)	Cambuur (away, 4)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	91%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	75%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	63%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	72%
Win %	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	0.75	1.25	1.92
Goals against per game	2.50	1.50	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Willem II	18	2	9
Cambuur	14	9	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Willem II 0 wins, 1 draw, Cambuur 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 11 May 2022	Eredivisie	Cambuur v Willem II	1–1
Fri, 10 Dec 2021	Eredivisie	Willem II v Cambuur	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Willem II v Cambuur?: Our model makes Cambuur the more likely winner at 39%: Willem II 36%, draw 24%, Cambuur 39%. Willem II lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Willem II v Cambuur?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Willem II games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Willem II and Cambuur played recently?: Latest first: Willem II LLLLD, Cambuur DWDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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11:15 · EredivisieEredivisieSittardvExcelsior	O1.581%	44%	25%	31%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
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