NEC vs FC Groningen prediction

Eredivisie · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK

NEC vs FC Groningen prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 UK): NEC 52% · Draw 22% · FC Groningen 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.99–1.34. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

NEC vs Groningen preview

NEC (12th, 10 pts) host Groningen (7th, 14 pts) in the Eredivisie. NEC have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DDDLD) and Groningen 8 points from 5 (LWWDD). NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.

Our model favours NEC at 52% to Groningen's 25%. Expected goals are 1.99 for NEC and 1.34 for Groningen, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 60%, against 72% across the Eredivisie. In their last 5 meetings, NEC won 3 and Groningen won 2; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win NEC vs FC Groningen?

NEC are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a FC Groningen win together still account for 48%. Recent form: NEC DDDLDL, FC Groningen LWWDDL (latest first).

NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

NEC

52%

Draw

22%

FC Groningen

25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 65% and Under 2.5 is 35%.

Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Groningen games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	85%	15%	1.18
2.5 goals	65%	35%	1.55
3.5 goals	43%	57%	2.35

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: NEC score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and FC Groningen in about 74%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 NEC home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.66
No	40%	2.53

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
NEC win	52%	1.92
Draw	22%	4.47
FC Groningen win	25%	3.94
Over 2.5	65%	1.55
Under 2.5	35%	2.83

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: NEC goals (rows) × FC Groningen goals (columns)
NEC \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	7%	10%	6%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

2-1

2-0

1-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have NEC and Groningen played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

NEC, last 5

NEC, last 5 at home

Groningen, last 5

Groningen, last 5 away

Current streaks

NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.
Groningen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
NEC have not won in their last 6 league games.
Groningen: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
NEC: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. NEC and Groningen.

How NEC and Groningen compare this season

Stat	NEC (home, 5)	Groningen (away, 4)	Eredivisie average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	100% (4/4)	91%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	75% (3/4)	75%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	75% (3/4)	63%
BTTS	100% (5/5)	100% (4/4)	72%
Win %	0% (0/5)	50% (2/4)	32% home · 40% away
Goals for per game	1.40	2.75	1.92
Goals against per game	2.00	2.00	1.92

Eredivisie average from 81 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Eredivisie table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
NEC	12	10	9
Groningen	7	14	9

Full Eredivisie table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: NEC 3 wins, 0 draws, Groningen 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 10 May 2026	Eredivisie	Groningen v NEC	2–1
Sun, 9 Nov 2025	Eredivisie	NEC v Groningen	2–0
Sat, 8 Feb 2025	Eredivisie	Groningen v NEC	2–1
Sun, 3 Nov 2024	Eredivisie	NEC v Groningen	6–0
Tue, 25 Apr 2023	Eredivisie	Groningen v NEC	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win NEC v Groningen?: Our model makes NEC the more likely winner at 52%: NEC 52%, draw 22%, Groningen 25%. NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC v Groningen?: Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 8 of 9 Groningen games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have NEC and Groningen played recently?: Latest first: NEC DDDLD, Groningen LWWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Eredivisie predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:30 · EredivisieEredivisieUtrechtvZwolle	O1.585%	63%	20%	17%	85%	65%	43%	59%	65%	85%	43%	59%
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Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisieSittardvExcelsior	O1.581%	44%	25%	31%	81%	59%	37%	59%	59%	81%	37%	59%
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