Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK
Santos FC vs EC Bahia prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK): Santos FC 42% · Draw 26% · EC Bahia 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.53–1.31. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Santos vs Bahia preview
Santos (8th, 45 pts) host Bahia (7th, 49 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Santos have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WLDWW) and Bahia 6 points from 5 (LWLLW). Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Santos 42%, Bahia 32%. Expected goals are 1.53 for Santos and 1.31 for Bahia, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. In their last 5 meetings, Santos won 2, Bahia won 1 and 2 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Santos FC vs EC Bahia?
Santos FC are favoured at 42%, but the draw and a EC Bahia win together still account for 58%. Recent form: Santos FC WLDWWW, EC Bahia LWLLWW (latest first).
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.
Over 2.5 in 21 of 31 Santos games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 78% | 22% | 1.28 |
| 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | 1.85 |
| 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | 3.15 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Santos FC score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and EC Bahia in about 73%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 23 of 31 Santos games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Santos FC win | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 |
| EC Bahia win | 32% | 3.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| Santos \ EC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 12% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Santos and Bahia played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Santos: both teams scored in each of their last 7 league games.
- Santos: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
- Santos: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
- Bahia: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Santos and Bahia.
How Santos and Bahia compare this season
| Stat | Santos (home, 15) | Bahia (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93% (14/15) | 73% (11/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% (8/15) | 53% (8/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% (4/15) | 33% (5/15) | 26% |
| BTTS | 67% (10/15) | 60% (9/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 40% (6/15) | 40% (6/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.47 | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 8 | 45 | 31 |
| Bahia | 7 | 49 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Santos 2 wins, 2 draws, Bahia 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 25 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Bahia v Santos | 2–2 |
| Sun, 24 Aug 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Bahia v Santos | 2–0 |
| Mon, 7 Apr 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Santos v Bahia | 2–2 |
| Tue, 19 Sept 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Bahia v Santos | 1–2 |
| Wed, 10 May 2023 | Brasileirão Série A | Santos v Bahia | 3–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Santos v Bahia?
- Our model makes Santos the more likely winner at 42%: Santos 42%, draw 26%, Bahia 32%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santos v Bahia?
- Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 21 of 31 Santos games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Santos and Bahia played recently?
- Latest first: Santos WLDWW, Bahia LWLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Santos FC
- EC Bahia
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 31% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 59% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.586% | 72% | 16% | 11% | 68% | 86% | 46% | 53% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 65% | 85% | 43% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |