SE Palmeiras vs EC Bahia 
prediction
Brasileirão Série A · Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 01:30 UK
SE Palmeiras vs EC Bahia prediction (Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 01:30 UK): SE Palmeiras 61% · Draw 23% · EC Bahia 16%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.83–0.82. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 22:15 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%).
Published · Updated
Who will win SE Palmeiras vs EC Bahia?
SE Palmeiras are clear favourites at 61%, with EC Bahia at 16%. Recent form: SE Palmeiras DWDDWL, EC Bahia LWWWWD (latest first).
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 75% | 25% | 1.34 |
| 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | 2.02 |
| 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | 3.63 |
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: SE Palmeiras score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and EC Bahia in about 57%, and both need to happen.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| No | 51% | 1.97 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| SE Palmeiras win | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 |
| EC Bahia win | 16% | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 27 Apr 2025 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · Brasileirão Série APalmeiras0Bahia1Palmeiras0–1Bahia | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 28 Sept 2025 | |||||||||
| FT · Brasileirão Série ABahia1Palmeiras0Bahia1–0Palmeiras | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 5 Apr 2026 | |||||||||
| FT · Brasileirão Série ABahia1Palmeiras2Bahia1–2Palmeiras | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
SE Palmeiras — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | Grêmio FBPA | Away | 0–0 | D |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | São Paulo FC | Home | 2–0 | W |
| Sun, 6 Sept 2026 | Botafogo FR | Away | 0–0 | D |
| Sun, 30 Aug 2026 | Mirassol FC | Away | 1–1 | D |
| Sun, 23 Aug 2026 | CR Vasco da Gama | Home | 4–1 | W |
| Sat, 15 Aug 2026 | Fluminense FC | Away | 2–3 | L |
EC Bahia — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | CA Paranaense | Away | 1–2 | L |
| Tue, 15 Sept 2026 | Clube do Remo | Home | 2–1 | W |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | RB Bragantino | Away | 3–2 | W |
| Sun, 30 Aug 2026 | SC Internacional | Home | 3–2 | W |
| Sun, 23 Aug 2026 | EC Vitória | Away | 2–0 | W |
| Sun, 16 Aug 2026 | Chapecoense AF | Away | 3–3 | D |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
| SE \ EC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 12% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 12% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Related
- SE Palmeiras
- EC Bahia
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 9 Oct 2026 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · Brasileirão Série A Paranaense MineiroParanaensevMineiro | 47% | 27% | 26% | 46% | 50% | U3.5 75% | 72% | 25% | |
01:30 · Brasileirão Série A Fluminense CoritibaFluminensevCoritiba | 57% | 23% | 20% | 55% | 52% | O1.5 79% | 79% | 33% | |
18:45 · Primeira Liga Moreirense Gil VicenteMoreirensevGil Vicente | 34% | 29% | 37% | 41% | 49% | U3.5 79% | 68% | 21% | |