Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK

Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK): Mirassol FC 45% · Draw 28% · São Paulo FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.38–1.01. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Mirassol vs São Paulo preview

Mirassol (14th, 36 pts) host São Paulo (9th, 42 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Mirassol have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WLDWD) and São Paulo 9 points from 5 (WWLLW). Mirassol: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model favours Mirassol at 45% to São Paulo's 27%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Mirassol and 1.01 for São Paulo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 49%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 3 meetings, Mirassol won 2 and São Paulo won 1; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Mirassol FC vs São Paulo FC?

Mirassol FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a São Paulo FC win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Mirassol FC WLDWDW, São Paulo FC WWLLWL (latest first).

São Paulo lost 10 of 15 away games this season.

Mirassol FC

45%

Draw

28%

São Paulo FC

27%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 São Paulo away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.44
2.5 goals	43%	57%	2.34
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.56

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Mirassol FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and São Paulo FC in about 64%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.02
No	51%	1.98

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Mirassol FC win	45%	2.23
Draw	28%	3.57
São Paulo FC win	27%	3.69
Over 2.5	43%	2.34
Under 2.5	57%	1.75

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Mirassol FC goals (rows) × São Paulo FC goals (columns)
Mirassol \ São	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	12%	13%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	9%	4%	2%	0%	0%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

12%

0-0

10%

2-1

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Mirassol and São Paulo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Mirassol, last 5

Mirassol, last 5 at home

São Paulo, last 5

São Paulo, last 5 away

Current streaks

Mirassol: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Mirassol and São Paulo.

How Mirassol and São Paulo compare this season

Stat	Mirassol (home, 16)	São Paulo (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	81% (13/16)	73% (11/15)	78%
Over 2.5	56% (9/16)	33% (5/15)	51%
Over 3.5	25% (4/16)	7% (1/15)	26%
BTTS	69% (11/16)	53% (8/15)	59%
Win %	44% (7/16)	13% (2/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.44	0.73	1.33
Goals against per game	1.31	1.47	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Mirassol	14	36	31
São Paulo	9	42	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Mirassol 2 wins, 0 draws, São Paulo 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 3; both teams scored in 0 of 3.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 26 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	São Paulo v Mirassol	1–0
Sun, 19 Oct 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Mirassol v São Paulo	3–0
Sat, 24 May 2025	Brasileirão Série A	São Paulo v Mirassol	0–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Mirassol v São Paulo?: Our model makes Mirassol the more likely winner at 45%: Mirassol 45%, draw 28%, São Paulo 27%. São Paulo lost 10 of 15 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Mirassol v São Paulo?: Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 São Paulo away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Mirassol and São Paulo played recently?: Latest first: Mirassol WLDWD, São Paulo WWLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%
23:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AChapecoensevFluminense	O1.579%	19%	23%	58%	79%	56%	33%	52%	56%	79%	33%	52%

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