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São Paulo FC crest São Paulo FC vs EC Vitória EC Vitória crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK

Full-time: São Paulo FC 2–1 EC Vitória (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave São Paulo FC a 46% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–1 a 9% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

São Paulo FC vs EC Vitória prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK): São Paulo FC 46% · Draw 29% · EC Vitória 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.34–0.90. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

São Paulo vs Vitória pre-match preview

São Paulo (9th, 42 pts) host Vitória (13th, 37 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. São Paulo have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LLWLW) and Vitória 7 points from 5 (WLDWL). Vitória: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours São Paulo at 46% to Vitória's 25%. Expected goals are 1.34 for São Paulo and 0.90 for Vitória, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 61%, while 51% of Brasileirão Série A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, São Paulo won 2 and Vitória won 2; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win São Paulo FC vs EC Vitória?

São Paulo FC are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a EC Vitória win together still account for 54%. Recent form: São Paulo FC LLWLWW, EC Vitória WLDWLL (latest first).

São Paulo won 10 of 16 home games this season.

São Paulo FC46%
Draw29%
EC Vitória25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 61%; Over 2.5 is 39%.

Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 São Paulo games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals66%34%1.51
2.5 goals39%61%2.58
3.5 goals19%81%5.30

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: São Paulo FC score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and EC Vitória in about 60%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.08
No52%1.92

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
São Paulo FC win46%2.16
Draw29%3.45
EC Vitória win25%4.03
Over 2.539%2.58
Under 2.561%1.63

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: São Paulo FC goals (rows) × EC Vitória goals (columns)
São \ EC012345
011%9%4%1%0%0%
114%13%6%2%0%0%
210%9%4%1%0%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-014%
1-113%
0-011%
2-010%
0-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have São Paulo and Vitória played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

São Paulo, last 5
  1. L 0–2 at Cruzeiro
  2. L 1–2 v Santos
  3. W 1–0 v Internacional
  4. L 0–2 at Palmeiras
  5. W 2–0 v Mineiro
São Paulo, last 5 at home
  1. L 1–2 v Santos
  2. W 1–0 v Internacional
  3. W 2–0 v Mineiro
  4. W 2–1 v Bragantino
  5. D 1–1 v Coritiba
Vitória, last 5
  1. W 4–0 v Chapecoense
  2. L 1–3 v Cruzeiro
  3. D 2–2 at Mirassol
  4. W 1–0 v Grêmio
  5. L 1–2 at Mineiro
Vitória, last 5 away
  1. D 2–2 at Mirassol
  2. L 1–2 at Mineiro
  3. L 0–2 at Flamengo
  4. L 0–2 at Clube do Remo
  5. D 0–0 at Botafogo

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. São Paulo and Vitória.

How São Paulo and Vitória compare this season

StatSão Paulo (home, 16)Vitória (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.575% (12/16)94% (15/16)78%
Over 2.544% (7/16)50% (8/16)51%
Over 3.513% (2/16)31% (5/16)26%
BTTS56% (9/16)63% (10/16)59%
Win %63% (10/16)0% (0/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.560.751.33
Goals against per game0.812.061.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
São Paulo94231
Vitória133731

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: São Paulo 2 wins, 0 draws, Vitória 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 11 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AVitória v São Paulo2–0
Sun, 7 Dec 2025Brasileirão Série AVitória v São Paulo1–0
Sat, 9 Aug 2025Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Vitória2–0
Sun, 25 Aug 2024Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Vitória2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win São Paulo v Vitória?
Our model makes São Paulo the more likely winner at 46%: São Paulo 46%, draw 29%, Vitória 25%. São Paulo won 10 of 16 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in São Paulo v Vitória?
Over 2.5 goals is 39% and under 2.5 is 61%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 São Paulo games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have São Paulo and Vitória played recently?
Latest first: São Paulo LLWLW, Vitória WLDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 11 Oct 2026
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