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SE Palmeiras crest SE Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino RB Bragantino crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK

SE Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): SE Palmeiras 65% · Draw 22% · RB Bragantino 13%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.87–0.71. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Palmeiras vs Bragantino preview

Palmeiras (2nd, 66 pts) host Bragantino (10th, 41 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Palmeiras have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWWDW) and Bragantino 5 points from 5 (DWDLL), so Palmeiras arrive in clearly better form. Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Palmeiras clear favourites at 65%, with Bragantino at 13%. Expected goals are 1.87 for Palmeiras and 0.71 for Bragantino, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 48%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Palmeiras won 4, Bragantino didn't win any and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Palmeiras to win is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SE Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?

SE Palmeiras are clear favourites at 65%, with RB Bragantino at 13%. Recent form: SE Palmeiras WWWDWD, RB Bragantino DWDLLD (latest first).

Palmeiras won 11 of 15 home games this season.

SE Palmeiras65%
Draw22%
RB Bragantino13%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Under 2.5 in 11 of 16 Bragantino away games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals73%27%1.36
2.5 goals48%52%2.09
3.5 goals26%74%3.84

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: SE Palmeiras score in about 85% of simulated outcomes and RB Bragantino in about 52%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.10
No52%1.91

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
SE Palmeiras win65%1.55
Draw22%4.50
RB Bragantino win13%7.59
Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.91

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SE Palmeiras goals (rows) × RB Bragantino goals (columns)
SE \ RB012345
08%5%2%0%0%0%
114%10%4%1%0%0%
213%9%3%1%0%0%
38%6%2%1%0%0%
44%3%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-014%
2-013%
1-110%
2-19%
3-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Palmeiras and Bragantino played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Palmeiras, last 5
  1. W 2–0 at Paranaense
  2. W 4–1 v Corinthians
  3. W 1–0 v Bahia
  4. D 0–0 at Grêmio
  5. W 2–0 v São Paulo
Palmeiras, last 5 at home
  1. W 4–1 v Corinthians
  2. W 1–0 v Bahia
  3. W 2–0 v São Paulo
  4. W 4–1 v Vasco da Gama
  5. D 0–0 v Internacional
Bragantino, last 5
  1. D 1–1 at Clube do Remo
  2. W 4–2 v Cruzeiro
  3. D 1–1 v Mirassol
  4. L 0–1 at Mineiro
  5. L 1–2 at Flamengo
Bragantino, last 5 away
  1. D 1–1 at Clube do Remo
  2. L 0–1 at Mineiro
  3. L 1–2 at Flamengo
  4. D 1–1 at Botafogo
  5. L 1–2 at São Paulo

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Palmeiras and Bragantino.

How Palmeiras and Bragantino compare this season

StatPalmeiras (home, 15)Bragantino (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.567% (10/15)81% (13/16)78%
Over 2.547% (7/15)31% (5/16)51%
Over 3.520% (3/15)0% (0/16)26%
BTTS60% (9/15)56% (9/16)59%
Win %73% (11/15)25% (4/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.870.941.33
Goals against per game0.671.191.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Palmeiras26631
Bragantino104131

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Palmeiras 4 wins, 1 draw, Bragantino 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 26 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série ABragantino v Palmeiras0–1
Wed, 15 Oct 2025Brasileirão Série APalmeiras v Bragantino5–1
Sun, 18 May 2025Brasileirão Série ABragantino v Palmeiras1–2
Sat, 5 Oct 2024Brasileirão Série ABragantino v Palmeiras0–0
Fri, 21 Jun 2024Brasileirão Série APalmeiras v Bragantino2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Palmeiras v Bragantino?
Our model makes Palmeiras the more likely winner at 65%: Palmeiras 65%, draw 22%, Bragantino 13%. Palmeiras won 11 of 15 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Palmeiras v Bragantino?
Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 11 of 16 Bragantino away games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Palmeiras and Bragantino played recently?
Latest first: Palmeiras WWWDW, Bragantino DWDLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%
23:30 · BrasileirãoChapecoense AF crestChapecoenseFluminense FC crestFluminenseO1.579%19%23%58%56%79%33%52%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
13:00 · La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid crestRayo VallecanoElche CF crestElcheU3.579%44%28%27%42%69%21%51%