Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK

Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 23:30 UK): Chapecoense AF 19% · Draw 23% · Fluminense FC 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.00–1.91. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (10%), 0-2 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Chapecoense vs Fluminense preview

Chapecoense (20th, 18 pts) host Fluminense (5th, 51 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Chapecoense have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLLDL) and Fluminense 6 points from 5 (LLWWL). Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.

Our model makes Fluminense clear favourites at 58%, with Chapecoense at 19%. Expected goals are 1.00 for Chapecoense and 1.91 for Fluminense, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Brasileirão Série A norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. In their last 3 meetings, Fluminense won all 3; all had over 2.5 goals.

Fluminense to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Chapecoense AF vs Fluminense FC?

Fluminense FC are clear favourites at 58%, with Chapecoense AF at 19%. Recent form: Chapecoense AF LLLDLW, Fluminense FC LLWWLW (latest first).

Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.

Chapecoense AF

19%

Draw

23%

Fluminense FC

58%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 10 of 14 Chapecoense home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.80
3.5 goals	33%	67%	3.00

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Chapecoense AF score in about 64% of simulated outcomes and Fluminense FC in about 85%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 11 of 15 Fluminense away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.93
No	48%	2.08

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Chapecoense AF win	19%	5.27
Draw	23%	4.40
Fluminense FC win	58%	1.72
Over 2.5	56%	1.80
Under 2.5	44%	2.26

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Chapecoense AF goals (rows) × Fluminense FC goals (columns)
Chapecoense \ Fluminense	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	10%	10%	6%	3%	1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%
2	3%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%
3	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	0%
4	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

0-1

10%

0-2

10%

1-2

10%

0-3

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Chapecoense and Fluminense played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Chapecoense, last 5

Chapecoense, last 5 at home

Fluminense, last 5

Fluminense, last 5 away

Current streaks

Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Chapecoense have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Chapecoense and Fluminense.

How Chapecoense and Fluminense compare this season

Stat	Chapecoense (home, 14)	Fluminense (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	86% (12/14)	87% (13/15)	78%
Over 2.5	71% (10/14)	40% (6/15)	51%
Over 3.5	57% (8/14)	33% (5/15)	26%
BTTS	71% (10/14)	73% (11/15)	59%
Win %	14% (2/14)	20% (3/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.36	1.33	1.33
Goals against per game	2.36	1.53	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Chapecoense	20	18	30
Fluminense	5	51	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Chapecoense 0 wins, 0 draws, Fluminense 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 3; both teams scored in 2 of 3.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 27 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Fluminense v Chapecoense	2–1
Fri, 10 Dec 2021	Brasileirão Série A	Fluminense v Chapecoense	3–0
Wed, 8 Sept 2021	Brasileirão Série A	Chapecoense v Fluminense	1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Chapecoense v Fluminense?: Our model makes Fluminense the more likely winner at 58%: Chapecoense 19%, draw 23%, Fluminense 58%. Chapecoense have not won in their last 5 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chapecoense v Fluminense?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 10 of 14 Chapecoense home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Chapecoense and Fluminense played recently?: Latest first: Chapecoense LLLDL, Fluminense LLWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVasco da GamavCorinthians	U3.575%	41%	27%	32%	73%	47%	25%	51%	47%	73%	25%	51%

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