Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK
Full-time: CR Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense FC (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CR Flamengo a 58% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 12% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.
4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (58%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (76%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (51%)Incorrect
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (71%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (50%)Incorrect
- Correct score: pick 1-0 (12%)Correct
- Double chance: pick 1X (82%)Correct
Published before kick-off, unchanged
CR Flamengo vs Fluminense FC prediction (Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 21:30 UK): CR Flamengo 58% · Draw 24% · Fluminense FC 18%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.80–0.90. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Flamengo vs Fluminense pre-match preview
Flamengo (1st, 67 pts) host Fluminense (5th, 51 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Flamengo have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (DWWWW) and Fluminense 10 points from 5 (WWLWD). Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites at 58%, with Fluminense at 18%. Expected goals are 1.80 for Flamengo and 0.90 for Fluminense, and the most likely score is 1-0 (12%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 50%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Flamengo won 2 and Fluminense won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Flamengo to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win CR Flamengo vs Fluminense FC?
CR Flamengo are clear favourites at 58%, with Fluminense FC at 18%. Recent form: CR Flamengo DWWWWW, Fluminense FC WWLWDW (latest first).
Flamengo won 11 of 15 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 51% and Under 2.5 is 49%.
Over 2.5 in 19 of 31 Flamengo games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 76% | 24% | 1.32 |
| 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | 1.97 |
| 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | 3.49 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: CR Flamengo score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and Fluminense FC in about 60%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 11 of 15 Fluminense away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| CR Flamengo win | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 |
| Fluminense FC win | 18% | 5.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.7 total goals.
| CR \ Fluminense | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 12% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 2 | 11% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 7% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Flamengo and Fluminense played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Flamengo and Fluminense.
How Flamengo and Fluminense compare this season
| Stat | Flamengo (home, 15) | Fluminense (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93% (14/15) | 87% (13/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% (8/15) | 40% (6/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% (2/15) | 33% (5/15) | 26% |
| BTTS | 40% (6/15) | 73% (11/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 73% (11/15) | 20% (3/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.93 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 0.67 | 1.53 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1 | 67 | 31 |
| Fluminense | 5 | 51 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Flamengo 2 wins, 0 draws, Fluminense 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 12 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Fluminense v Flamengo | 1–2 |
| Thu, 20 Nov 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Fluminense v Flamengo | 2–1 |
| Sun, 20 Jul 2025 | Brasileirão Série A | Flamengo v Fluminense | 1–0 |
| Fri, 18 Oct 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Flamengo v Fluminense | 0–2 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Flamengo v Fluminense?
- Our model makes Flamengo the more likely winner at 58%: Flamengo 58%, draw 24%, Fluminense 18%. Flamengo won 11 of 15 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Flamengo v Fluminense?
- Over 2.5 goals is 51% and under 2.5 is 49%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 19 of 31 Flamengo games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Flamengo and Fluminense played recently?
- Latest first: Flamengo DWWWW, Fluminense WWLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- CR Flamengo
- Fluminense FC
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 31% | 28% | 41% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A | U3.581%✓ | 46%✓ | 29%✕ | 25%✕ | 39%✓ | 66%✓ | 19%✕ | 48%✓ |
FT · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584%✓ | 70%✓ | 18%✕ | 12%✕ | 64%✓ | 84%✓ | 42%✓ | 56%✓ |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | U3.577%✓ | 37%✕ | 28%✓ | 34%✕ | 44%✕ | 70%✕ | 23%✕ | 51%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.583%✕ | 62%✓ | 21%✕ | 17%✕ | 61%✕ | 83%✕ | 39%✕ | 55%✕ |
FT · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577%✕ | 36%✕ | 26%✓ | 37%✕ | 52%✕ | 77%✕ | 30%✕ | 55%✕ |