Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK
EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:30 UK): EC Vitória 31% · Draw 28% · CA Paranaense 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.14–1.37. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Vitória vs Paranaense preview
Vitória (13th, 37 pts) host Paranaense (3rd, 53 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Vitória have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (DLWLD) and Paranaense 8 points from 5 (LWDWD). Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
Our model favours Paranaense at 41% to Vitória's 31%. Expected goals are 1.14 for Vitória and 1.37 for Paranaense, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 3 meetings, Vitória won 1 and Paranaense won 2; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win EC Vitória vs CA Paranaense?
CA Paranaense are favoured at 41%, but the draw and a EC Vitória win together still account for 59%. Recent form: EC Vitória DLWLDW, CA Paranaense LWDWDL (latest first).
Paranaense won 2 of 3 of the last 3 meetings.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.
Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 Vitória home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 72% | 28% | 1.39 |
| 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | 2.18 |
| 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | 4.08 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: EC Vitória score in about 68% of simulated outcomes and CA Paranaense in about 75%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 9 of 15 Paranaense away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| EC Vitória win | 31% | 3.24 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 |
| CA Paranaense win | 41% | 2.41 |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.5 total goals.
| EC \ CA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 11% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Vitória and Paranaense played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Paranaense: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.
- Vitória: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Vitória and Paranaense.
How Vitória and Paranaense compare this season
| Stat | Vitória (home, 15) | Paranaense (away, 15) | Brasileirão Série A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 67% (10/15) | 73% (11/15) | 78% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% (5/15) | 60% (9/15) | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% (4/15) | 33% (5/15) | 26% |
| BTTS | 20% (3/15) | 60% (9/15) | 59% |
| Win % | 67% (10/15) | 40% (6/15) | 47% home · 25% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.47 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
| Goals against per game | 0.80 | 1.47 | 1.33 |
Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.
Brasileirão Série A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | 13 | 37 | 31 |
| Paranaense | 3 | 53 | 31 |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Vitória 1 win, 0 draws, Paranaense 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 3; both teams scored in 2 of 3.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 26 Apr 2026 | Brasileirão Série A | Paranaense v Vitória | 3–1 |
| Sat, 2 Nov 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Paranaense v Vitória | 1–2 |
| Sun, 30 Jun 2024 | Brasileirão Série A | Vitória v Paranaense | 0–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Vitória v Paranaense?
- Our model makes Paranaense the more likely winner at 41%: Vitória 31%, draw 28%, Paranaense 41%. Paranaense won 2 of 3 of the last 3 meetings.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória v Paranaense?
- Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 10 of 15 Vitória home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Vitória and Paranaense played recently?
- Latest first: Vitória DLWLD, Paranaense LWDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- EC Vitória
- CA Paranaense
- Brasileirão Série A predictions
- Brasileirão Série A table
- Brasileirão Série A Home win
- Brasileirão Série A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | O1.577% | 60% | 23% | 17% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 50% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 35% | 28% | 37% | 46% | 72% | 25% | 51% |
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578% | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.574% | 65% | 22% | 13% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 48% |
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.575% | 41% | 27% | 32% | 47% | 73% | 25% | 51% |
23:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A Chapecoense | O1.579% | 19% | 23% | 58% | 56% | 79% | 33% | 52% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578% | 34% | 29% | 37% | 43% | 70% | 22% | 51% |
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.581% | 27% | 25% | 48% | 57% | 81% | 35% | 59% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 32% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 71% | 23% | 52% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.576% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 51% | 76% | 29% | 53% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.579% | 44% | 28% | 27% | 42% | 69% | 21% | 51% |