ProbaPredict

SC Corinthians Paulista crest SC Corinthians Paulista vs EC Vitória EC Vitória crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 00:00 UK

Full-time: SC Corinthians Paulista 1–1 EC Vitória (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 00:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 28% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 13% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

SC Corinthians Paulista vs EC Vitória prediction (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 00:00 UK): SC Corinthians Paulista 47% · Draw 28% · EC Vitória 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.38–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Corinthians vs Vitória pre-match preview

Corinthians (16th, 33 pts) host Vitória (13th, 37 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Corinthians have taken 0 points from their last 5 games (LLLLL) and Vitória 7 points from 5 (LWLDW), so Vitória arrive in clearly better form. Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.

Our model favours Corinthians at 47% to Vitória's 25%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Corinthians and 0.92 for Vitória, and the most likely score is 1-0 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 48%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Corinthians won 2, Vitória didn't win any and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SC Corinthians Paulista vs EC Vitória?

SC Corinthians Paulista are favoured at 47%, but the draw and a EC Vitória win together still account for 53%. Recent form: SC Corinthians Paulista LLLLLL, EC Vitória LWLDWL (latest first).

Vitória lost 10 of 16 away games this season.

SC Corinthians Paulista47%
Draw28%
EC Vitória25%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 59%; Over 2.5 is 41%.

Under 2.5 in 10 of 16 Corinthians home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals68%32%1.48
2.5 goals41%59%2.46
3.5 goals20%80%4.95

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: SC Corinthians Paulista score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and EC Vitória in about 60%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.06
No52%1.94

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
SC Corinthians Paulista win47%2.12
Draw28%3.54
EC Vitória win25%4.06
Over 2.541%2.46
Under 2.559%1.68

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SC Corinthians Paulista goals (rows) × EC Vitória goals (columns)
SC \ EC012345
010%9%4%1%0%0%
113%13%6%2%0%0%
210%9%4%1%0%0%
34%4%2%1%0%0%
42%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-013%
1-113%
0-010%
2-010%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Corinthians and Vitória played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Corinthians, last 5
  1. L 1–4 at Palmeiras
  2. L 1–2 at Internacional
  3. L 1–3 v Fluminense
  4. L 1–2 at Flamengo
  5. L 1–2 v Chapecoense
Corinthians, last 5 at home
  1. L 1–3 v Fluminense
  2. L 1–2 v Chapecoense
  3. L 0–1 v Santos
  4. L 1–2 v Cruzeiro
  5. D 0–0 v Paranaense
Vitória, last 5
  1. L 1–2 at São Paulo
  2. W 4–0 v Chapecoense
  3. L 1–3 v Cruzeiro
  4. D 2–2 at Mirassol
  5. W 1–0 v Grêmio
Vitória, last 5 away
  1. L 1–2 at São Paulo
  2. D 2–2 at Mirassol
  3. L 1–2 at Mineiro
  4. L 0–2 at Flamengo
  5. L 0–2 at Clube do Remo

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Corinthians and Vitória.

How Corinthians and Vitória compare this season

StatCorinthians (home, 16)Vitória (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.563% (10/16)94% (15/16)78%
Over 2.538% (6/16)50% (8/16)51%
Over 3.513% (2/16)31% (5/16)26%
BTTS44% (7/16)63% (10/16)59%
Win %31% (5/16)0% (0/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.000.751.33
Goals against per game1.062.061.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Corinthians163331
Vitória133731

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Corinthians 2 wins, 2 draws, Vitória 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AVitória v Corinthians0–0
Sat, 25 Oct 2025Brasileirão Série AVitória v Corinthians0–1
Sun, 1 Jun 2025Brasileirão Série ACorinthians v Vitória0–0
Sat, 9 Nov 2024Brasileirão Série AVitória v Corinthians1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Corinthians v Vitória?
Our model makes Corinthians the more likely winner at 47%: Corinthians 47%, draw 28%, Vitória 25%. Vitória lost 10 of 16 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Corinthians v Vitória?
Over 2.5 goals is 41% and under 2.5 is 59%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 10 of 16 Corinthians home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Corinthians and Vitória played recently?
Latest first: Corinthians LLLLL, Vitória LWLDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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