Full-time: Liverpool FC 4–3 Villarreal CF (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Liverpool FC a 60% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–3 a 1% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.
Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.
How each market was graded
1X2 (match result): pick home (60%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (58%)Correct
Correct score: pick 2-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (81%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (87%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (68%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (54%)Incorrect
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF prediction (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Liverpool FC 60% · Draw 20% · Villarreal CF 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.26–1.23. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).
Liverpool host Villarreal in the Champions League. Liverpool have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWLWD) and Villarreal 10 points from 5 (DWLWW). Villarreal: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
Our model makes Liverpool clear favourites at 60%, with Villarreal at 19%. Expected goals are 2.26 for Liverpool and 1.23 for Villarreal, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).
Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 58%, against 67% across the Champions League.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF?
Liverpool FC are clear favourites at 60%, with Villarreal CF at 19%. Recent form: Liverpool FC WWLWDW, Villarreal CF DWLWWL (latest first).
Liverpool have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Liverpool FC score in about 90% of simulated outcomes and Villarreal CF in about 71%, and both need to happen.
Villarreal: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
Villarreal: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
Liverpool: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 Champions League games.
Liverpool: both teams scored in each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Liverpool: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 3 Champions League games.
Liverpool have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Villarreal: both teams scored in each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Liverpool and Villarreal.
How Liverpool and Villarreal compare this season
Stat
Liverpool (home, 2)
Villarreal (away, 2)
Champions League average
Over 1.5
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
87%
Over 2.5
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
74%
Over 3.5
50% (1/2)
100% (2/2)
63%
BTTS
100% (2/2)
100% (2/2)
67%
Win %
100% (2/2)
0% (0/2)
59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game
3.00
2.50
2.05
Goals against per game
2.00
3.50
2.05
Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Liverpool v Villarreal?
Our model makes Liverpool the more likely winner at 60%: Liverpool 60%, draw 20%, Villarreal 19%. Liverpool have won each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Villarreal?
Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in all 3 Liverpool games this season.
What is the most likely score?
2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Liverpool and Villarreal played recently?
Latest first: Liverpool WWLWD, Villarreal DWLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
