Brentford FC vs Liverpool FC prediction

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Brentford FC 1–2 Liverpool FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Liverpool FC a 36% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–2 a 8% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (39%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (82%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (59%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (63%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (75%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Brentford FC vs Liverpool FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Brentford FC 39% · Draw 25% · Liverpool FC 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.57–1.51. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Brentford vs Liverpool pre-match preview

Brentford (6th, 10 pts) host Liverpool (5th, 12 pts) in the Premier League. Brentford have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWDDD) and Liverpool 10 points from 5 (WLWDW). Brentford: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Brentford 39%, Liverpool 36%. Expected goals are 1.57 for Brentford and 1.51 for Liverpool, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. In their last 4 meetings, Brentford won 1, Liverpool won 2 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Brentford FC vs Liverpool FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Brentford FC 39%, Liverpool FC 36%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: Brentford FC DWDDDW, Liverpool FC WLWDWW (latest first).

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Brentford FC

39%

Draw

25%

Liverpool FC

36%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brentford home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.23
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.68
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.70

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: Brentford FC score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and Liverpool FC in about 78%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Brentford games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.68
No	40%	2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Brentford FC win	39%	2.57
Draw	25%	4.05
Liverpool FC win	36%	2.75
Over 2.5	59%	1.68
Under 2.5	41%	2.46

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Brentford FC goals (rows) × Liverpool FC goals (columns)
Brentford \ Liverpool	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	7%	5%	3%	1%	0%
1	7%	11%	8%	4%	2%	0%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	2%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

1-2

1-0

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Brentford and Liverpool played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Brentford, last 5

Brentford, last 5 at home

Liverpool, last 5

Liverpool, last 5 away

Current streaks

Brentford: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Brentford: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Brentford and Liverpool.

How Brentford and Liverpool compare this season

Stat	Brentford (home, 4)	Liverpool (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	76%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	54%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	53%
Win %	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.75	1.45
Goals against per game	0.75	0.75	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Brentford	6	10	7
Liverpool	5	12	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Brentford 1 win, 1 draw, Liverpool 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 24 May 2026	Premier League	Liverpool v Brentford	1–1
Sat, 25 Oct 2025	Premier League	Brentford v Liverpool	3–2
Sat, 18 Jan 2025	Premier League	Brentford v Liverpool	0–2
Sun, 25 Aug 2024	Premier League	Liverpool v Brentford	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Brentford v Liverpool?: Our model makes Brentford the more likely winner at 39%: Brentford 39%, draw 25%, Liverpool 36%. Model expects 3.1 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brentford v Liverpool?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brentford home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Brentford and Liverpool played recently?: Latest first: Brentford DWDDD, Liverpool WLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueAston VillavMan City	O1.581%	27%	25%	48%	81%	57%	35%	59%	57%	81%	35%	59%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueCoventry CityvFulham	O1.575%	36%	27%	37%	75%	50%	28%	57%	50%	75%	28%	57%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueArsenalvEverton	U3.577%	64%	24%	12%	71%	44%	23%	51%	44%	71%	23%	51%
17:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueChelseavTottenham	O1.582%	54%	24%	22%	82%	60%	37%	59%	60%	82%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan UnitedvBournemouth	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueHull CityvBrentford	O1.576%	22%	25%	53%	76%	52%	30%	56%	52%	76%	30%	56%

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