Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Full-time: Middlesbrough FC 2–2 Cardiff City FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 22% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (61%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (82%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (81%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (58%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (64%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Middlesbrough FC 61% · Draw 22% · Cardiff City FC 18%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.02–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff pre-match preview

Middlesbrough (3rd, 22 pts) host Cardiff (19th, 11 pts) in the Championship. Middlesbrough have taken 11 points from their last 5 games (WWDDW) and Cardiff 7 points from 5 (WLWLD). Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model makes Middlesbrough clear favourites at 61%, with Cardiff at 18%. Expected goals are 2.02 for Middlesbrough and 1.00 for Cardiff, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 64% across the Championship. In their last 4 meetings, Middlesbrough won 3, Cardiff didn't win any and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Middlesbrough to win is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Middlesbrough FC vs Cardiff City FC?

Middlesbrough FC are clear favourites at 61%, with Cardiff City FC at 18%. Recent form: Middlesbrough FC WWDDWW, Cardiff City FC WLWLDL (latest first).

Middlesbrough won 4 of 6 home games this season.

Middlesbrough FC

61%

Draw

22%

Cardiff City FC

18%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Middlesbrough home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.24
2.5 goals	58%	42%	1.72
3.5 goals	36%	64%	2.81

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Middlesbrough FC score in about 87% of simulated outcomes and Cardiff City FC in about 64%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 6 Middlesbrough home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.86
No	46%	2.16

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Middlesbrough FC win	61%	1.65
Draw	22%	4.61
Cardiff City FC win	18%	5.68
Over 2.5	58%	1.72
Under 2.5	42%	2.38

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Middlesbrough FC goals (rows) × Cardiff City FC goals (columns)
Middlesbrough \ Cardiff	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	7%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

2-0

10%

2-1

10%

1-0

10%

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Middlesbrough and Cardiff played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Middlesbrough, last 5

Middlesbrough, last 5 at home

Cardiff, last 5

Cardiff, last 5 away

Current streaks

Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Cardiff: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Cardiff: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Cardiff: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Middlesbrough and Cardiff.

How Middlesbrough and Cardiff compare this season

Stat	Middlesbrough (home, 6)	Cardiff (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	83% (5/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	83% (5/6)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	67% (4/6)	33% (2/6)	36%
BTTS	83% (5/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	67% (4/6)	0% (0/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.33	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.50	1.83	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Middlesbrough	3	22	11
Cardiff	19	11	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Middlesbrough 3 wins, 1 draw, Cardiff 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 4 Jan 2025	Championship	Middlesbrough v Cardiff	1–1
Sat, 31 Aug 2024	Championship	Cardiff v Middlesbrough	0–2
Sat, 27 Apr 2024	Championship	Cardiff v Middlesbrough	1–4
Tue, 3 Oct 2023	Championship	Middlesbrough v Cardiff	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Middlesbrough v Cardiff?: Our model makes Middlesbrough the more likely winner at 61%: Middlesbrough 61%, draw 22%, Cardiff 18%. Middlesbrough won 4 of 6 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Middlesbrough v Cardiff?: Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Middlesbrough home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Middlesbrough and Cardiff played recently?: Latest first: Middlesbrough WWDDW, Cardiff WLWLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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