Everton FC vs Chelsea FC prediction

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Full-time: Everton FC 0–2 Chelsea FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Chelsea FC a 35% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–2 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (38%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (75%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (50%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (72%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Everton FC vs Chelsea FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Everton FC 38% · Draw 27% · Chelsea FC 35%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.30. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Everton vs Chelsea pre-match preview

Everton (8th, 10 pts) host Chelsea (4th, 13 pts) in the Premier League. Everton have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWDDD) and Chelsea 7 points from 5 (WLDLW). Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Everton 38%, Chelsea 35%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Everton and 1.30 for Chelsea, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 4 meetings, Everton won 1, Chelsea won 2 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Everton FC vs Chelsea FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Everton FC 38%, Chelsea FC 35%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Everton FC DWDDDW, Chelsea FC WLDLWW (latest first).

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Everton FC

38%

Draw

27%

Chelsea FC

35%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Chelsea games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.33
2.5 goals	50%	50%	2.00
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.56

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Everton FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Chelsea FC in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Chelsea games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.76
No	43%	2.31

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Everton FC win	38%	2.62
Draw	27%	3.73
Chelsea FC win	35%	2.86
Over 2.5	50%	2.00
Under 2.5	50%	2.00

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Everton FC goals (rows) × Chelsea FC goals (columns)
Everton \ Chelsea	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	9%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	9%	13%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

0-1

2-1

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Everton and Chelsea played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Everton and Chelsea.

How Everton and Chelsea compare this season

Stat	Everton (home, 4)	Chelsea (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	75% (3/4)	54%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	36%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	53%
Win %	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.50	1.45
Goals against per game	1.00	1.75	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Everton	8	10	7
Chelsea	4	13	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Everton 1 win, 1 draw, Chelsea 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 21 Mar 2026	Premier League	Everton v Chelsea	3–0
Sat, 13 Dec 2025	Premier League	Chelsea v Everton	2–0
Sat, 26 Apr 2025	Premier League	Chelsea v Everton	1–0
Sun, 22 Dec 2024	Premier League	Everton v Chelsea	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Everton v Chelsea?: Our model makes Everton the more likely winner at 38%: Everton 38%, draw 27%, Chelsea 35%. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton v Chelsea?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Chelsea games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Everton and Chelsea played recently?: Latest first: Everton DWDDD, Chelsea WLDLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueAston VillavMan City	O1.581%	27%	25%	48%	81%	57%	35%	59%	57%	81%	35%	59%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueCoventry CityvFulham	O1.575%	36%	27%	37%	75%	50%	28%	57%	50%	75%	28%	57%
15:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueArsenalvEverton	U3.577%	64%	24%	12%	71%	44%	23%	51%	44%	71%	23%	51%
17:30 · Premier LgPremier LeagueChelseavTottenham	O1.582%	54%	24%	22%	82%	60%	37%	59%	60%	82%	37%	59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueMan UnitedvBournemouth	O1.582%	44%	25%	31%	82%	59%	37%	60%	59%	82%	37%	60%
14:00 · Premier LgPremier LeagueHull CityvBrentford	O1.576%	22%	25%	53%	76%	52%	30%	56%	52%	76%	30%	56%

Other matches the same day