Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth 
prediction
Premier League · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK
Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth prediction (Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Chelsea FC 45% · Draw 25% · AFC Bournemouth 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.69–1.37. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 17:01 UK.
Published · Updated
Who will win Chelsea FC vs AFC Bournemouth?
Chelsea FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a AFC Bournemouth win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Chelsea FC LDLWWL, AFC Bournemouth LDDDLD (latest first).
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 82% | 18% | 1.23 |
| 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.69 |
| 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | 2.72 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea FC win | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 |
| AFC Bournemouth win | 31% | 3.25 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 6 Dec 2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · Premier LeagueBournemouth0Chelsea0Bournemouth0–0Chelsea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Tue, 30 Dec 2025 | ||||||||
| FT · Premier LeagueChelsea2Bournemouth2Chelsea2–2Bournemouth | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Chelsea FC — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 18 Sept 2026 | Brentford FC | Away | 0–3 | L |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | Hull City AFC | Home | 2–2 | D |
| Sun, 6 Sept 2026 | Arsenal FC | Away | 1–2 | L |
| Sun, 30 Aug 2026 | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | Home | 4–3 | W |
| Mon, 24 Aug 2026 | Fulham FC | Away | 3–2 | W |
| Sun, 24 May 2026 | Sunderland AFC | Away | 1–2 | L |
AFC Bournemouth — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | Liverpool FC | Home | 0–1 | L |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | Brentford FC | Home | 2–2 | D |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | Newcastle United FC | Away | 2–2 | D |
| Sat, 29 Aug 2026 | Everton FC | Home | 1–1 | D |
| Sun, 23 Aug 2026 | Manchester City FC | Away | 1–2 | L |
| Sun, 24 May 2026 | Nottingham Forest FC | Away | 1–1 | D |
What are the most likely scores?
Related
- Chelsea FC
- AFC Bournemouth
- Premier League predictions
- Premier League Home win
- Premier League Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier League Arsenal LeedsArsenalvLeeds | 62% | 24% | 13% | 41% | U3.5 79% | 68% | 21% | |
12:30 · Championship West Brom BirminghamWest BromvBirmingham | 39% | 30% | 31% | 38% | U3.5 81% | 66% | 19% | |
12:30 · Championship Swansea NorwichSwanseavNorwich | 44% | 26% | 30% | 54% | O1.5 78% | 78% | 32% | |