Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC 
prediction
Premier League · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK
Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC prediction (Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Arsenal FC 63% · Draw 24% · Leeds United FC 13%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.79–0.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 13:12 UK.
Published · Updated
Who will win Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC?
Arsenal FC are clear favourites at 63%, with Leeds United FC at 13%. Recent form: Arsenal FC LWWWWW, Leeds United FC DWDDWL (latest first).
Arsenal FC
63%
Draw
24%
Leeds United FC
13%
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 55%; Over 2.5 is 45%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 71% | 29% | 1.41 |
| 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | 2.24 |
| 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | 4.27 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal FC win | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 |
| Leeds United FC win | 13% | 7.72 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
Form and head-to-head
Arsenal FC: last 6
Goals per game: 1.5
| Fri, 21 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · Premier LeagueArsenal3 Coventry City0Arsenal3–0Coventry City | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Mon, 31 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier League Aston Villa0Arsenal1Aston Villa0–1Arsenal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 6 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier LeagueArsenal2 Chelsea1Arsenal2–1Chelsea | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Wed, 9 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Champions League Napoli0Arsenal1Napoli0–1Arsenal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier League Sunderland0Arsenal2Sunderland0–2Arsenal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier League Brighton3Arsenal0Brighton3–0Arsenal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Leeds United FC: last 6
Goals per game: 1.2
| Sun, 24 May 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · Premier League West Ham3Leeds0West Ham3–0Leeds | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 22 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier League Nottingham0Leeds1Nottingham0–1Leeds | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 30 Aug 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier LeagueLeeds1 Brentford1Leeds1–1Brentford | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · Premier LeagueBrighton1Leeds1Brighton1–1Leeds | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Mon, 14 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier LeagueLeeds4 Newcastle1Leeds4–1Newcastle | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | ||||||||
FT · Premier LeagueLeeds0 Crystal Palace0Leeds0–0Crystal Palace | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Last 2 meetings
| Sat, 23 Aug 2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · Premier LeagueArsenal5Leeds0Arsenal5–0Leeds | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 31 Jan 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · Premier LeagueLeeds0Arsenal4Leeds0–4Arsenal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
What are the most likely scores?
1-0
15%
2-0
14%
1-1
11%
2-1
9%
0-0
9%
Related
- Arsenal FC
- Leeds United FC
- Premier League predictions
- Premier League Home win
- Premier League Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Championship Swansea NorwichSwanseavNorwich | 44% | 26% | 29% | 53% | O1.5 77% | 77% | 31% | |
12:30 · Championship West Brom BirminghamWest BromvBirmingham | 36% | 31% | 33% | 37% | U3.5 82% | 65% | 18% | |
12:30 · Championship Charlton Bristol CityCharltonvBristol City | 33% | 31% | 36% | 38% | U3.5 82% | 66% | 18% | |