Watford FC vs Charlton Athletic FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Full-time: Watford FC 2–0 Charlton Athletic FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Watford FC a 39% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–0 a 8% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

6 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (39%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick no (50%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (14%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (70%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (65%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (63%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (82%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Watford FC vs Charlton Athletic FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Watford FC 39% · Draw 30% · Charlton Athletic FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.17–1.01. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Watford vs Charlton pre-match preview

Watford (20th, 11 pts) host Charlton (17th, 14 pts) in the Championship. Watford have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLLLW) and Charlton 4 points from 5 (DDLDD). Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Watford 39%, Charlton 31%. A draw is more likely than usual at 30%; 28% of Championship matches end level. Expected goals are 1.17 for Watford and 1.01 for Charlton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 63%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 63%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Watford FC vs Charlton Athletic FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Watford FC 39%, Charlton Athletic FC 31%, with the draw at 30%. Recent form: Watford FC LLLLWL, Charlton Athletic FC DDLDDL (latest first).

Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.

Watford FC

39%

Draw

30%

Charlton Athletic FC

31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 63%; Over 2.5 is 37%.

Under 2.5 in 15 of 23 Charlton away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	65%	35%	1.55
2.5 goals	37%	63%	2.68
3.5 goals	18%	82%	5.65

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: Watford FC score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and Charlton Athletic FC in about 64%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	50%	2.02
No	50%	1.98

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Watford FC win	39%	2.57
Draw	30%	3.32
Charlton Athletic FC win	31%	3.23
Over 2.5	37%	2.68
Under 2.5	63%	1.59

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Watford FC goals (rows) × Charlton Athletic FC goals (columns)
Watford \ Charlton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12%	11%	6%	2%	0%	0%
1	13%	14%	7%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	8%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

1-0

13%

0-0

12%

0-1

11%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Watford and Charlton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Watford, last 5

Watford, last 5 at home

Charlton, last 5

Charlton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.
Charlton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Watford: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Watford and Charlton.

How Watford and Charlton compare this season

Stat	Watford (home, 6)	Charlton (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (6/6)	100% (6/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	17% (1/6)	50% (3/6)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	50% (3/6)	17% (1/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.33	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.50	2.17	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Watford	20	11	11
Charlton	17	14	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Watford 0 wins, 1 draw, Charlton 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 6 Apr 2026	Championship	Watford v Charlton	1–1
Sat, 9 Aug 2025	Championship	Charlton v Watford	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Watford v Charlton?: Our model makes Watford the more likely winner at 39%: Watford 39%, draw 30%, Charlton 31%. Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Watford v Charlton?: Over 2.5 goals is 37% and under 2.5 is 63%, with expected goals of 2.2. Under 2.5 in 15 of 23 Charlton away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Watford and Charlton played recently?: Latest first: Watford LLLLW, Charlton DDLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionshipPortsmouthvMillwall	U3.578%	34%	29%	37%	70%	43%	22%	51%	43%	70%	22%	51%
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionshipCharltonvNorwich	U3.577%	32%	28%	40%	71%	45%	23%	52%	45%	71%	23%	52%
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionshipSheffield UtdvDerby County	O1.576%	50%	25%	25%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%
15:00 · EFL ChampChampionshipCardiffvBirmingham	O1.575%	34%	27%	39%	75%	50%	28%	54%	50%	75%	28%	54%
15:00 · EFL ChampChampionshipQPRvSwansea	U3.575%	37%	28%	35%	72%	46%	25%	53%	46%	72%	25%	53%
15:00 · EFL ChampChampionshipStokevBristol City	U3.578%	40%	29%	31%	69%	42%	22%	51%	42%	69%	22%	51%

Other matches the same day