Burnley FC vs Charlton Athletic FC prediction

Championship · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Burnley FC 2–2 Charlton Athletic FC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 26% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (57%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick no (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-0 (15%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (83%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (69%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (58%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (79%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Burnley FC vs Charlton Athletic FC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Burnley FC 57% · Draw 26% · Charlton Athletic FC 17%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.61–0.75. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%).

Published Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Burnley vs Charlton pre-match preview

Burnley (22nd, 8 pts) host Charlton (17th, 14 pts) in the Championship. Burnley have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (WDLDL) and Charlton 3 points from 5 (DLDDL). Burnley: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 league games.

Our model makes Burnley clear favourites at 57%, with Charlton at 17%. Expected goals are 1.61 for Burnley and 0.75 for Charlton, and the most likely score is 1-0 (15%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Burnley FC vs Charlton Athletic FC?

Burnley FC are clear favourites at 57%, with Charlton Athletic FC at 17%. Recent form: Burnley FC WDLDLD, Charlton Athletic FC DLDDLD (latest first).

Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.

Burnley FC

57%

Draw

26%

Charlton Athletic FC

17%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 15 of 23 Charlton away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.38
3.5 goals	21%	79%	4.68

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Burnley FC score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Charlton Athletic FC in about 53%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.04
No	51%	1.96

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Burnley FC win	57%	1.74
Draw	26%	3.89
Charlton Athletic FC win	17%	5.90
Over 2.5	42%	2.38
Under 2.5	58%	1.73

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Burnley FC goals (rows) × Charlton Athletic FC goals (columns)
Burnley \ Charlton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	15%	12%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	9%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	7%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

15%

2-0

12%

1-1

12%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Burnley and Charlton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Burnley, last 5

Burnley, last 5 at home

Charlton, last 5

Charlton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Burnley: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 16 league games.
Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.
Charlton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Burnley: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Burnley and Charlton.

How Burnley and Charlton compare this season

Stat	Burnley (home, 6)	Charlton (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (6/6)	100% (6/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	33% (2/6)	50% (3/6)	36%
BTTS	100% (6/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	0% (0/6)	17% (1/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.33	1.00	1.44
Goals against per game	1.67	2.17	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Burnley	22	8	11
Charlton	17	14	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Burnley v Charlton?: Our model makes Burnley the more likely winner at 57%: Burnley 57%, draw 26%, Charlton 17%. Charlton have not won in their last 8 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Burnley v Charlton?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 15 of 23 Charlton away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 15%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Burnley and Charlton played recently?: Latest first: Burnley WDLDL, Charlton DLDDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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