Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC prediction

Championship · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

Full-time: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 1–3 Bolton Wanderers FC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Bolton Wanderers FC a 17% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–3 a 2% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 6.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (63%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (85%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (64%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (58%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
Correct score: pick 2-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (83%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 63% · Draw 20% · Bolton Wanderers FC 17%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.23–1.08. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%).

Published Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Wolves vs Bolton pre-match preview

Wolves (7th, 18 pts) host Bolton (15th, 14 pts) in the Championship. Wolves have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LWWDL) and Bolton 6 points from 5 (LWWLL). Wolves: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model makes Wolves clear favourites at 63%, with Bolton at 17%. Expected goals are 2.23 for Wolves and 1.08 for Bolton, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 55%, against 64% across the Championship.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 64%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC?

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC are clear favourites at 63%, with Bolton Wanderers FC at 17%. Recent form: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC LWWDLW, Bolton Wanderers FC LWWLLL (latest first).

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC

63%

Draw

20%

Bolton Wanderers FC

17%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 64% and Under 2.5 is 36%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Bolton away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	85%	15%	1.18
2.5 goals	64%	36%	1.56
3.5 goals	42%	58%	2.37

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC score in about 89% of simulated outcomes and Bolton Wanderers FC in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Wolves home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.80
No	45%	2.25

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win	63%	1.59
Draw	20%	4.97
Bolton Wanderers FC win	17%	5.91
Over 2.5	64%	1.56
Under 2.5	36%	2.79

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC goals (rows) × Bolton Wanderers FC goals (columns)
Wolverhampton \ Bolton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	8%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

10%

1-1

2-0

1-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Wolves and Bolton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Wolves, last 5

Wolves, last 5 at home

Bolton, last 5

Bolton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Wolves: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Wolves: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Wolves and Bolton.

How Wolves and Bolton compare this season

Stat	Wolves (home, 5)	Bolton (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	67% (4/6)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	67% (4/6)	61%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	67% (4/6)	36%
BTTS	80% (4/5)	50% (3/6)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	33% (2/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.80	1.50	1.44
Goals against per game	1.40	1.83	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Wolves	7	18	11
Bolton	15	14	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Wolves v Bolton?: Our model makes Wolves the more likely winner at 63%: Wolves 63%, draw 20%, Bolton 17%. Model expects 3.3 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wolves v Bolton?: Over 2.5 goals is 64% and under 2.5 is 36%, with expected goals of 3.3. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 Bolton away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Wolves and Bolton played recently?: Latest first: Wolves LWWDL, Bolton LWWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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