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Racing Club de Lens crest Racing Club de Lens vs Sporting Clube de Portugal Sporting Clube de Portugal crest prediction

Champions League · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK

Full-time: Racing Club de Lens 0–2 Sporting Clube de Portugal (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Sporting Clube de Portugal a 40% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–2 a 6% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Racing Club de Lens vs Sporting Clube de Portugal prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK): Racing Club de Lens 36% · Draw 25% · Sporting Clube de Portugal 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.58. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lens vs Sporting CP pre-match preview

Lens host Sporting CP in the Champions League. Lens have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLDWL) and Sporting CP 11 points from 5 (WDDWW). Sporting CP: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Lens 36%, Sporting CP 40%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Lens and 1.58 for Sporting CP, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 59%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Racing Club de Lens vs Sporting Clube de Portugal?

This is close to a coin flip: Racing Club de Lens 36%, Sporting Clube de Portugal 40%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: Racing Club de Lens WLDWLL, Sporting Clube de Portugal WDDWWW (latest first).

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Racing Club de Lens36%
Draw25%
Sporting Clube de Portugal40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Lens games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals81%19%1.23
2.5 goals59%41%1.69
3.5 goals37%63%2.72

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Racing Club de Lens score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Sporting Clube de Portugal in about 79%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Sporting CP games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes57%1.75
No43%2.34

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Racing Club de Lens win36%2.82
Draw25%4.02
Sporting Clube de Portugal win40%2.52
Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.45

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Racing Club de Lens goals (rows) × Sporting Clube de Portugal goals (columns)
Racing \ Sporting012345
05%7%6%3%1%0%
16%11%9%5%2%1%
25%8%6%3%1%0%
33%4%3%2%1%0%
41%1%1%1%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
1-29%
2-18%
0-17%
1-06%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lens and Sporting CP played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lens, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Lyon
  2. L 1–2 at Monaco
  3. D 2–2 at Le Mans
  4. W 3–2 at Slavia Praha
  5. L 0–1 v Lorient
Lens, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Lyon
  2. L 0–1 v Lorient
  3. W 5–2 v Auxerre
  4. L 0–2 v PSG
  5. W 1–0 v Nantes
Sporting CP, last 5
  1. W 3–1 at Braga
  2. D 2–2 v Arouca
  3. D 1–1 at Famalicão
  4. W 3–1 v Galatasaray
  5. W 2–0 v Nacional
Sporting CP, last 5 away
  1. W 3–1 at Braga
  2. D 1–1 at Famalicão
  3. W 4–0 at Rio Ave
  4. D 2–2 at Amadora
  5. W 4–1 at Rio Ave

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Lens and Sporting CP.

How Lens and Sporting CP compare this season

StatLens (home, 1)Sporting CP (away, 1)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (1/1)100% (1/1)87%
Over 2.50% (0/1)0% (0/1)74%
Over 3.50% (0/1)0% (0/1)63%
BTTS0% (0/1)0% (0/1)67%
Win %0% (0/1)100% (1/1)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game0.002.002.05
Goals against per game2.000.002.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lens v Sporting CP?
Our model makes Sporting CP the more likely winner at 40%: Lens 36%, draw 25%, Sporting CP 40%. Model expects 3.1 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lens v Sporting CP?
Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Lens games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lens and Sporting CP played recently?
Latest first: Lens WLDWL, Sporting CP WDDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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