ProbaPredict

RB Bragantino crest RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro EC Cruzeiro EC crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK

Full-time: RB Bragantino 4–2 Cruzeiro EC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave RB Bragantino a 32% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–2 a 1% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro EC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK): RB Bragantino 32% · Draw 29% · Cruzeiro EC 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.14–1.27. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 12 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro pre-match preview

Bragantino (10th, 41 pts) host Cruzeiro (4th, 51 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Bragantino have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (DLLDL) and Cruzeiro 9 points from 5 (WWLWL), so Cruzeiro arrive in clearly better form. Cruzeiro: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Bragantino 32%, Cruzeiro 39%. Expected goals are 1.14 for Bragantino and 1.27 for Cruzeiro, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 50%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, Bragantino won 1, Cruzeiro won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win RB Bragantino vs Cruzeiro EC?

This is close to a coin flip: RB Bragantino 32%, Cruzeiro EC 39%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: RB Bragantino DLLDLL, Cruzeiro EC WWLWLW (latest first).

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

RB Bragantino32%
Draw29%
Cruzeiro EC39%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 Bragantino games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.43
2.5 goals43%57%2.31
3.5 goals22%78%4.46

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: RB Bragantino score in about 68% of simulated outcomes and Cruzeiro EC in about 72%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes50%2.00
No50%2.00

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
RB Bragantino win32%3.08
Draw29%3.50
Cruzeiro EC win39%2.56
Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.77

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: RB Bragantino goals (rows) × Cruzeiro EC goals (columns)
RB \ Cruzeiro012345
09%11%7%3%1%0%
110%14%8%4%1%0%
26%7%5%2%1%0%
32%3%2%1%0%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-114%
0-111%
1-010%
0-09%
1-28%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bragantino and Cruzeiro played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bragantino, last 5
  1. D 1–1 v Mirassol
  2. L 0–1 at Mineiro
  3. L 1–2 at Flamengo
  4. D 1–1 at Botafogo
  5. L 2–3 v Bahia
Bragantino, last 5 at home
  1. D 1–1 v Mirassol
  2. L 2–3 v Bahia
  3. W 1–0 v Grêmio
  4. L 0–2 v Corinthians
  5. D 0–0 v Coritiba
Cruzeiro, last 5
  1. W 2–0 v São Paulo
  2. W 3–1 at Vitória
  3. L 1–2 at Santos
  4. W 3–1 v Paranaense
  5. L 1–3 at Vasco da Gama
Cruzeiro, last 5 away
  1. W 3–1 at Vitória
  2. L 1–2 at Santos
  3. L 1–3 at Vasco da Gama
  4. W 2–1 at Corinthians
  5. W 1–0 at Coritiba

Current streaks

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Bragantino and Cruzeiro.

How Bragantino and Cruzeiro compare this season

StatBragantino (home, 15)Cruzeiro (away, 16)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.573% (11/15)88% (14/16)78%
Over 2.547% (7/15)75% (12/16)51%
Over 3.527% (4/15)44% (7/16)26%
BTTS53% (8/15)75% (12/16)59%
Win %47% (7/15)44% (7/16)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.601.501.33
Goals against per game1.131.881.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
Bragantino104131
Cruzeiro45131

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bragantino 1 win, 1 draw, Cruzeiro 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 12 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série ACruzeiro v Bragantino2–1
Mon, 22 Sept 2025Brasileirão Série ACruzeiro v Bragantino2–1
Mon, 21 Apr 2025Brasileirão Série ABragantino v Cruzeiro1–0
Sun, 1 Dec 2024Brasileirão Série ABragantino v Cruzeiro1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bragantino v Cruzeiro?
Our model makes Cruzeiro the more likely winner at 39%: Bragantino 32%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 39%. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bragantino v Cruzeiro?
Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 Bragantino games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bragantino and Cruzeiro played recently?
Latest first: Bragantino DLLDL, Cruzeiro WWLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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