CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK

CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 22:30 UK): CR Vasco da Gama 41% · Draw 27% · SC Corinthians Paulista 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians preview

Vasco da Gama (15th, 35 pts) host Corinthians (16th, 33 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Vasco da Gama have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LDWWW) and Corinthians 1 point from 5 (DLLLL), so Vasco da Gama arrive in clearly better form. Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Vasco da Gama 41%, Corinthians 32%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Vasco da Gama and 1.17 for Corinthians, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 5 meetings, Vasco da Gama won 1 and Corinthians won 4; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 53%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win CR Vasco da Gama vs SC Corinthians Paulista?

This is close to a coin flip: CR Vasco da Gama 41%, SC Corinthians Paulista 32%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: CR Vasco da Gama LDWWWL, SC Corinthians Paulista DLLLLL (latest first).

Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.

CR Vasco da Gama

41%

Draw

27%

SC Corinthians Paulista

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.38
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.14
3.5 goals	25%	75%	3.98

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: CR Vasco da Gama score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and SC Corinthians Paulista in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 11 of 15 Corinthians away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.96
No	49%	2.04

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
CR Vasco da Gama win	41%	2.45
Draw	27%	3.64
SC Corinthians Paulista win	32%	3.16
Over 2.5	47%	2.14
Under 2.5	53%	1.88

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CR Vasco da Gama goals (rows) × SC Corinthians Paulista goals (columns)
CR \ SC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

2-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Vasco da Gama and Corinthians played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Vasco da Gama, last 5

Vasco da Gama, last 5 at home

Corinthians, last 5

Corinthians, last 5 away

Current streaks

Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.
Corinthians: both teams scored in each of their last 6 league games.
Corinthians: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Brasileirão Série A games only, runs of three or more. Vasco da Gama and Corinthians.

How Vasco da Gama and Corinthians compare this season

Stat	Vasco da Gama (home, 15)	Corinthians (away, 15)	Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.5	73% (11/15)	80% (12/15)	78%
Over 2.5	60% (9/15)	53% (8/15)	51%
Over 3.5	20% (3/15)	27% (4/15)	26%
BTTS	53% (8/15)	73% (11/15)	59%
Win %	47% (7/15)	20% (3/15)	47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game	1.40	1.07	1.33
Goals against per game	1.20	1.47	1.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Vasco da Gama	15	35	30
Corinthians	16	33	31

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Vasco da Gama 1 win, 0 draws, Corinthians 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 26 Apr 2026	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Vasco da Gama	1–0
Sun, 24 Aug 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Vasco da Gama v Corinthians	2–3
Sat, 5 Apr 2025	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Vasco da Gama	3–0
Sun, 24 Nov 2024	Brasileirão Série A	Corinthians v Vasco da Gama	3–1
Wed, 10 Jul 2024	Brasileirão Série A	Vasco da Gama v Corinthians	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Vasco da Gama v Corinthians?: Our model makes Vasco da Gama the more likely winner at 41%: Vasco da Gama 41%, draw 27%, Corinthians 32%. Corinthians have not won in their last 9 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vasco da Gama v Corinthians?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.5. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Vasco da Gama and Corinthians played recently?: Latest first: Vasco da Gama LDWWW, Corinthians DLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série ACruzeirovClube do Remo	O1.577%	60%	23%	17%	77%	53%	30%	50%	53%	77%	30%	50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AInternacionalvBotafogo	U3.575%	35%	28%	37%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AMirassolvSão Paulo	U3.578%	45%	28%	27%	69%	43%	22%	49%	43%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AVitóriavParanaense	U3.575%	31%	28%	41%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série APalmeirasvBragantino	U3.574%	65%	22%	13%	73%	48%	26%	48%	48%	73%	26%	48%
23:30 · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série AChapecoensevFluminense	O1.579%	19%	23%	58%	79%	56%	33%	52%	56%	79%	33%	52%

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