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São Paulo FC crest São Paulo FC vs CR Vasco da Gama CR Vasco da Gama crest prediction

Brasileirão Série A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK

Full-time: São Paulo FC 1–0 CR Vasco da Gama (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave São Paulo FC a 45% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 10% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

São Paulo FC vs CR Vasco da Gama prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:00 UK): São Paulo FC 45% · Draw 27% · CR Vasco da Gama 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.47–1.13. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama pre-match preview

São Paulo (9th, 42 pts) host Vasco da Gama (15th, 35 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. São Paulo have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLLWL) and Vasco da Gama 10 points from 5 (DWWWL).

Our model favours São Paulo at 45% to Vasco da Gama's 29%. Expected goals are 1.47 for São Paulo and 1.13 for Vasco da Gama, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 51%, against 59% across the Brasileirão Série A. In their last 4 meetings, São Paulo won 2 and Vasco da Gama won 2; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win São Paulo FC vs CR Vasco da Gama?

São Paulo FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a CR Vasco da Gama win together still account for 55%. Recent form: São Paulo FC WLLWLW, CR Vasco da Gama DWWWLW (latest first).

São Paulo won 10 of 16 home games this season.

São Paulo FC45%
Draw27%
CR Vasco da Gama29%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 São Paulo games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals74%26%1.36
2.5 goals48%52%2.08
3.5 goals26%74%3.79

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: São Paulo FC score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and CR Vasco da Gama in about 68%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 10 of 15 Vasco da Gama away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes51%1.95
No49%2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
São Paulo FC win45%2.24
Draw27%3.73
CR Vasco da Gama win29%3.49
Over 2.548%2.08
Under 2.552%1.93

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: São Paulo FC goals (rows) × CR Vasco da Gama goals (columns)
São \ CR012345
08%8%5%2%1%0%
110%13%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
34%4%3%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
2-19%
2-08%
0-18%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have São Paulo and Vasco da Gama played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

São Paulo, last 5
  1. W 2–1 v Vitória
  2. L 0–2 at Cruzeiro
  3. L 1–2 v Santos
  4. W 1–0 v Internacional
  5. L 0–2 at Palmeiras
São Paulo, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Vitória
  2. L 1–2 v Santos
  3. W 1–0 v Internacional
  4. W 2–0 v Mineiro
  5. W 2–1 v Bragantino
Vasco da Gama, last 5
  1. D 0–0 v Clube do Remo
  2. W 2–1 at Botafogo
  3. W 5–0 v Coritiba
  4. W 2–1 at Grêmio
  5. L 0–1 at Fluminense
Vasco da Gama, last 5 away
  1. W 2–1 at Botafogo
  2. W 2–1 at Grêmio
  3. L 0–1 at Fluminense
  4. L 1–4 at Palmeiras
  5. D 0–0 at Bahia

How São Paulo and Vasco da Gama compare this season

StatSão Paulo (home, 16)Vasco da Gama (away, 15)Brasileirão Série A average
Over 1.575% (12/16)67% (10/15)78%
Over 2.544% (7/16)53% (8/15)51%
Over 3.513% (2/16)27% (4/15)26%
BTTS56% (9/16)67% (10/15)59%
Win %63% (10/16)13% (2/15)47% home · 25% away
Goals for per game1.561.001.33
Goals against per game0.811.671.33

Brasileirão Série A average from 309 matches (2026). Average goals for per game is per team.

Brasileirão Série A table

TeamPosPtsP
São Paulo94231
Vasco da Gama153530

Full Brasileirão Série A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: São Paulo 2 wins, 0 draws, Vasco da Gama 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sat, 18 Apr 2026Brasileirão Série AVasco da Gama v São Paulo2–1
Sun, 2 Nov 2025Brasileirão Série AVasco da Gama v São Paulo0–2
Fri, 13 Jun 2025Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Vasco da Gama1–3
Thu, 17 Oct 2024Brasileirão Série ASão Paulo v Vasco da Gama3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win São Paulo v Vasco da Gama?
Our model makes São Paulo the more likely winner at 45%: São Paulo 45%, draw 27%, Vasco da Gama 29%. São Paulo won 10 of 16 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in São Paulo v Vasco da Gama?
Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 19 of 31 São Paulo games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have São Paulo and Vasco da Gama played recently?
Latest first: São Paulo WLLWL, Vasco da Gama DWWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Brasileirão Série A predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
20:30 · BrasileirãoSC Internacional crestInternacionalBotafogo FR crestBotafogoU3.575%35%28%37%46%72%25%51%
20:30 · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassolSão Paulo FC crestSão PauloU3.578%45%28%27%43%69%22%49%
20:30 · BrasileirãoEC Vitória crestVitóriaCA Paranaense crestParanaenseU3.575%31%28%41%46%72%25%51%
22:30 · BrasileirãoSE Palmeiras crestPalmeirasRB Bragantino crestBragantinoU3.574%65%22%13%48%73%26%48%
22:30 · BrasileirãoCR Vasco da Gama crestVasco da GamaSC Corinthians Paulista crestCorinthiansU3.575%41%27%32%47%73%25%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 18 Oct 2026
FT · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolle4Go Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead1O1.585%✓28%✓23%✕49%✕65%✓85%✓43%✓61%✓
FT · Serie AUdinese Calcio crestUdinese0US Lecce crestLecce3U3.580%✓53%✕27%✕20%✓41%✓68%✓20%✕48%✕
FT · La LigaCA Osasuna crestOsasuna2Real Racing Club de Santander crestSantander0O1.587%✓48%✓22%✕30%✕68%✕87%✓46%✕60%✕
FT · EredivisieSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden crestCambuur2AZ crestAZ2O1.586%✓22%✕21%✓56%✕66%✓86%✓44%✓60%✓
FT · Premier LgAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouth2Sunderland AFC crestSunderland0U3.575%✓54%✓25%✕21%✕47%✕73%✓25%✕54%✕