Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce prediction

Serie A · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK

Full-time: Udinese Calcio 0–3 US Lecce (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave US Lecce a 20% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–3 a 1% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 5.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (53%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (68%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (59%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (80%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick no (52%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-0 (14%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (80%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK): Udinese Calcio 53% · Draw 27% · US Lecce 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.50–0.81. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Udinese vs Lecce pre-match preview

Udinese (16th, 4 pts) host Lecce (12th, 9 pts) in the Serie A. Udinese have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LLLLW) and Lecce 3 points from 5 (LLWLL). Udinese have lost each of their last 5 league games.

Our model makes Udinese clear favourites at 53%, with Lecce at 20%. Expected goals are 1.50 for Udinese and 0.81 for Lecce, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 59%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Udinese won 3 and Lecce won 1; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce?

Udinese Calcio are clear favourites at 53%, with US Lecce at 20%. Recent form: Udinese Calcio LLLLWD, US Lecce LLWLLW (latest first).

Udinese won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.

Udinese Calcio

53%

Draw

27%

US Lecce

20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 59%; Over 2.5 is 41%.

Under 2.5 in 13 of 19 Lecce away games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	68%	32%	1.48
2.5 goals	41%	59%	2.46
3.5 goals	20%	80%	4.94

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: Udinese Calcio score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and US Lecce in about 56%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	48%	2.07
No	52%	1.93

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Udinese Calcio win	53%	1.88
Draw	27%	3.70
US Lecce win	20%	5.03
Over 2.5	41%	2.46
Under 2.5	59%	1.68

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Udinese Calcio goals (rows) × US Lecce goals (columns)
Udinese \ US	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	14%	12%	5%	1%	0%	0%
2	11%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	6%	5%	2%	0%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

14%

1-1

12%

2-0

11%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Udinese and Lecce played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Udinese, last 5

Udinese, last 5 at home

Lecce, last 5

Lecce, last 5 away

Current streaks

Udinese have lost each of their last 5 league games.
Udinese have not won in their last 5 league games.
Lecce: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Lecce: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Udinese and Lecce.

How Udinese and Lecce compare this season

Stat	Udinese (home, 4)	Lecce (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	0% (0/4)	30%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	0% (0/4)	57%
Win %	0% (0/4)	50% (2/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	0.50	1.25	1.48
Goals against per game	1.75	1.00	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Udinese	16	4	7
Lecce	12	9	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Udinese 3 wins, 0 draws, Lecce 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Feb 2026	Serie A	Lecce v Udinese	2–1
Sat, 25 Oct 2025	Serie A	Udinese v Lecce	3–2
Fri, 21 Feb 2025	Serie A	Lecce v Udinese	0–1
Sat, 5 Oct 2024	Serie A	Udinese v Lecce	1–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Udinese v Lecce?: Our model makes Udinese the more likely winner at 53%: Udinese 53%, draw 27%, Lecce 20%. Udinese won 3 of 4 of the last 4 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Lecce?: Over 2.5 goals is 41% and under 2.5 is 59%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in 13 of 19 Lecce away games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Udinese and Lecce played recently?: Latest first: Udinese LLLLW, Lecce LLWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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