Atalanta BC vs Frosinone Calcio prediction

Serie A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Atalanta BC vs Frosinone Calcio prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Atalanta BC 56% · Draw 23% · Frosinone Calcio 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.88–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Atalanta vs Frosinone preview

Atalanta (11th, 9 pts) host Frosinone (6th, 13 pts) in the Serie A. Atalanta have taken 3 points from their last 5 games (LWLLL) and Frosinone 10 points from 5 (WLWDW), so Frosinone arrive in clearly better form. Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Atalanta clear favourites at 56%, with Frosinone at 20%. Expected goals are 1.88 for Atalanta and 1.05 for Frosinone, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 53%.

Atalanta to win is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Atalanta BC vs Frosinone Calcio?

Atalanta BC are clear favourites at 56%, with Frosinone Calcio at 20%. Recent form: Atalanta BC LWLLLW, Frosinone Calcio WLWDWW (latest first).

Atalanta won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Atalanta BC

56%

Draw

23%

Frosinone Calcio

20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Atalanta home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.79
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.97

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Atalanta BC score in about 85% of simulated outcomes and Frosinone Calcio in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Atalanta home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.89
No	47%	2.12

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Atalanta BC win	56%	1.77
Draw	23%	4.32
Frosinone Calcio win	20%	4.88
Over 2.5	56%	1.79
Under 2.5	44%	2.27

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Atalanta BC goals (rows) × Frosinone Calcio goals (columns)
Atalanta \ Frosinone	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

1-0

10%

2-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Atalanta and Frosinone played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Atalanta, last 5

Atalanta, last 5 at home

Frosinone, last 5

Frosinone, last 5 away

Current streaks

Frosinone: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Atalanta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Atalanta and Frosinone.

How Atalanta and Frosinone compare this season

Stat	Atalanta (home, 4)	Frosinone (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	100% (3/3)	84%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	60%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/3)	30%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	33% (1/3)	57%
Win %	75% (3/4)	33% (1/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.75	1.33	1.48
Goals against per game	1.00	1.33	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Atalanta	11	9	7
Frosinone	6	13	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Atalanta 1 win, 0 draws, Frosinone 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 15 Jan 2024	Serie A	Atalanta v Frosinone	5–0
Sat, 26 Aug 2023	Serie A	Frosinone v Atalanta	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atalanta v Frosinone?: Our model makes Atalanta the more likely winner at 56%: Atalanta 56%, draw 23%, Frosinone 20%. Atalanta won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Frosinone?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Atalanta home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Atalanta and Frosinone played recently?: Latest first: Atalanta LWLLL, Frosinone WLWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%

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