Genoa CFC vs Venezia FC prediction

Serie A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Genoa CFC vs Venezia FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Genoa CFC 39% · Draw 28% · Venezia FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.32–1.19. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Genoa vs Venezia preview

Genoa (17th, 4 pts) host Venezia (20th, 3 pts) in the Serie A. Genoa have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LWLDL) and Venezia 3 points from 5 (WLLLL). Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Genoa 39%, Venezia 33%. Expected goals are 1.32 for Genoa and 1.19 for Venezia, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 54%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Genoa won 3, Venezia won 1 and 1 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Genoa CFC vs Venezia FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Genoa CFC 39%, Venezia FC 33%, with the draw at 28%. Recent form: Genoa CFC LWLDLL, Venezia FC WLLLLL (latest first).

Venezia lost all 3 away games this season.

Genoa CFC

39%

Draw

28%

Venezia FC

33%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	72%	28%	1.39
2.5 goals	46%	54%	2.17
3.5 goals	25%	75%	4.07

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Genoa CFC score in about 73% of simulated outcomes and Venezia FC in about 70%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Genoa home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Genoa CFC win	39%	2.55
Draw	28%	3.61
Venezia FC win	33%	3.02
Over 2.5	46%	2.17
Under 2.5	54%	1.85

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Genoa CFC goals (rows) × Venezia FC goals (columns)
Genoa \ Venezia	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	9%	6%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

0-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Genoa and Venezia played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Genoa, last 5

Genoa, last 5 at home

Venezia, last 5

Venezia, last 5 away

Current streaks

Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Genoa and Venezia.

How Genoa and Venezia compare this season

Stat	Genoa (home, 4)	Venezia (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (3/3)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	60%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	67% (2/3)	30%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	57%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.00	1.48
Goals against per game	2.00	2.67	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Genoa	17	4	7
Venezia	20	3	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Genoa 3 wins, 1 draw, Venezia 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 17 Feb 2025	Serie A	Genoa v Venezia	2–0
Sat, 21 Sept 2024	Serie A	Venezia v Genoa	2–0
Mon, 16 Jan 2023	I2	Genoa v Venezia	1–0
Sun, 14 Aug 2022	I2	Venezia v Genoa	1–2
Sun, 20 Feb 2022	Serie A	Venezia v Genoa	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Genoa v Venezia?: Our model makes Genoa the more likely winner at 39%: Genoa 39%, draw 28%, Venezia 33%. Venezia lost all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v Venezia?: Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Genoa and Venezia played recently?: Latest first: Genoa LWLDL, Venezia WLLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
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19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
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