Venezia FC vs SSC Napoli prediction

Serie A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Full-time: Venezia FC 1–0 SSC Napoli (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Venezia FC a 27% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 8% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (46%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (52%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (13%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (73%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (74%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (52%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (74%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Venezia FC vs SSC Napoli prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Venezia FC 27% · Draw 27% · SSC Napoli 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.10–1.50. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Venezia vs Napoli pre-match preview

Venezia (20th, 3 pts) host Napoli (9th, 10 pts) in the Serie A. Venezia have taken 0 points from their last 5 games (LLLLL) and Napoli 7 points from 5 (LWDWL), so Napoli arrive in clearly better form.

Our model favours Napoli at 46% to Venezia's 27%. Expected goals are 1.10 for Venezia and 1.50 for Napoli, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 52%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Venezia didn't win any, Napoli won 3 and 1 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 52%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Venezia FC vs SSC Napoli?

SSC Napoli are favoured at 46%, but the draw and a Venezia FC win together still account for 54%. Recent form: Venezia FC LLLLLL, SSC Napoli LWDWLL (latest first).

Venezia lost 3 of 4 home games this season.

Venezia FC

27%

Draw

27%

SSC Napoli

46%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 48% and Under 2.5 is 52%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Venezia home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	74%	26%	1.36
2.5 goals	48%	52%	2.07
3.5 goals	26%	74%	3.77

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Venezia FC score in about 67% of simulated outcomes and SSC Napoli in about 78%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	52%	1.94
No	48%	2.07

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Venezia FC win	27%	3.66
Draw	27%	3.76
SSC Napoli win	46%	2.17
Over 2.5	48%	2.07
Under 2.5	52%	1.93

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.6 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Venezia FC goals (rows) × SSC Napoli goals (columns)
Venezia \ SSC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	11%	8%	4%	2%	0%
1	8%	13%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	4%	7%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

11%

1-2

0-2

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Venezia and Napoli played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Venezia, last 5

Venezia, last 5 at home

Napoli, last 5

Napoli, last 5 away

How Venezia and Napoli compare this season

Stat	Venezia (home, 4)	Napoli (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	84%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	60%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	30%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	57%
Win %	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	0.75	1.25	1.48
Goals against per game	2.00	1.25	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Venezia	20	3	7
Napoli	9	10	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Venezia 0 wins, 1 draw, Napoli 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 4; both teams scored in 0 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 16 Mar 2025	Serie A	Venezia v Napoli	0–0
Sun, 29 Dec 2024	Serie A	Napoli v Venezia	1–0
Sun, 6 Feb 2022	Serie A	Venezia v Napoli	0–2
Sun, 22 Aug 2021	Serie A	Napoli v Venezia	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Venezia v Napoli?: Our model makes Napoli the more likely winner at 46%: Venezia 27%, draw 27%, Napoli 46%. Venezia lost 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Venezia v Napoli?: Over 2.5 goals is 48% and under 2.5 is 52%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Venezia home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Venezia and Napoli played recently?: Latest first: Venezia LLLLL, Napoli LWDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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