Champions League · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK
Full-time: Villarreal CF 3–1 SSC Napoli (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Villarreal CF a 37% chance of winning, and the exact score 3–1 a 4% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.
5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.
Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.
How each market was graded
- 1X2 (match result): pick home (37%)Correct
- Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
- Correct score: pick 1-1 (12%)Incorrect
- Double chance: pick 12 (74%)Correct
- Over/Under 1.5: pick over (77%)Correct
- Over/Under 2.5: pick over (52%)Correct
- Over/Under 3.5: pick under (70%)Incorrect
Published before kick-off, unchanged
Villarreal CF vs SSC Napoli prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Villarreal CF 37% · Draw 26% · SSC Napoli 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.40–1.37. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (8%), 1-0 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Villarreal vs Napoli pre-match preview
Villarreal host Napoli in the Champions League. Villarreal have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWWLL) and Napoli 7 points from 5 (WDWLL). Villarreal: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Villarreal 37%, Napoli 36%. Expected goals are 1.40 for Villarreal and 1.37 for Napoli, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
Over 2.5 goals is 52%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Villarreal CF vs SSC Napoli?
This is close to a coin flip: Villarreal CF 37%, SSC Napoli 36%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Villarreal CF LWWLLL, SSC Napoli WDWLLL (latest first).
Napoli lost 3 of 4 away games last season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 52% and Under 2.5 is 48%.
Over 2.5 in all 3 Villarreal games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 77% | 23% | 1.30 |
| 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | 1.91 |
| 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | 3.31 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Villarreal CF score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and SSC Napoli in about 75%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 3 Villarreal games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 |
| SSC Napoli win | 36% | 2.76 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.8 total goals.
| Villarreal \ SSC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 8% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 6% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Villarreal and Napoli played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Villarreal: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
- Villarreal: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 7 Champions League games.
- Villarreal: both teams scored in each of their last 3 Champions League games.
Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Villarreal and Napoli.
How Villarreal and Napoli compare this season
| Stat | Villarreal (home, 1) | Napoli (away, 1) | Champions League average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (1/1) | 100% (1/1) | 87% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (1/1) | 100% (1/1) | 74% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% (1/1) | 100% (1/1) | 63% |
| BTTS | 100% (1/1) | 100% (1/1) | 67% |
| Win % | 100% (1/1) | 0% (0/1) | 59% home · 30% away |
| Goals for per game | 3.00 | 1.00 | 2.05 |
| Goals against per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Head-to-head
No previous meetings in our records.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Villarreal v Napoli?
- Our model makes Villarreal the more likely winner at 37%: Villarreal 37%, draw 26%, Napoli 36%. Napoli lost 3 of 4 away games last season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Napoli?
- Over 2.5 goals is 52% and under 2.5 is 48%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in all 3 Villarreal games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Villarreal and Napoli played recently?
- Latest first: Villarreal LWWLL, Napoli WDWLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Villarreal CF
- SSC Napoli
- Champions League predictions
- Champions League Home win
- Champions League Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FT · BrasileirãoBrasileirão Série A  | U3.578%✕ | 32%✓ | 29%✕ | 39%✕ | 43%✓ | 70%✓ | 22%✓ | 50%✓ |
FT · UCLChampions League  | O1.581%✓ | 36%✕ | 25%✕ | 40%✓ | 59%✕ | 81%✓ | 37%✕ | 57%✕ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.576%✓ | 44%✕ | 28%✕ | 28%✓ | 46%✓ | 72%✓ | 24%✕ | 52%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.585%✓ | 63%✕ | 20%✕ | 17%✓ | 64%✓ | 85%✓ | 42%✓ | 55%✓ |
FT · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.578%✓ | 44%✕ | 28%✕ | 28%✓ | 42%✕ | 69%✕ | 22%✕ | 51%✕ |