FC Internazionale Milano vs ACF Fiorentina prediction

Serie A · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK

FC Internazionale Milano vs ACF Fiorentina prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 UK): FC Internazionale Milano 72% · Draw 16% · ACF Fiorentina 11%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.56–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Inter vs Fiorentina preview

Inter (1st, 19 pts) host Fiorentina (18th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Inter have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWLWD) and Fiorentina 4 points from 5 (LLDWL), so Inter arrive in clearly better form. Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.

Our model makes Inter clear favourites at 72%, with Fiorentina at 11%. Expected goals are 2.56 for Inter and 0.92 for Fiorentina, and the most likely score is 2-0 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 53%. In their last 5 meetings, Inter won 3, Fiorentina won 1 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Inter to win is the model's clearest call at 72%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win FC Internazionale Milano vs ACF Fiorentina?

FC Internazionale Milano are clear favourites at 72%, with ACF Fiorentina at 11%. Recent form: FC Internazionale Milano WWLWDW, ACF Fiorentina LLDWLL (latest first).

Inter won all 4 home games this season.

FC Internazionale Milano

72%

Draw

16%

ACF Fiorentina

11%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 68%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Inter home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	86%	14%	1.16
2.5 goals	68%	32%	1.48
3.5 goals	46%	54%	2.18

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: FC Internazionale Milano score in about 92% of simulated outcomes and ACF Fiorentina in about 62%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Inter home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.89
No	47%	2.13

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Internazionale Milano win	72%	1.38
Draw	16%	6.07
ACF Fiorentina win	11%	8.95
Over 2.5	68%	1.48
Under 2.5	32%	3.08

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Internazionale Milano goals (rows) × ACF Fiorentina goals (columns)
FC \ ACF	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	8%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	9%	8%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	5%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	3%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	5% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

10%

2-1

3-0

3-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Inter and Fiorentina played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Inter, last 5

Inter, last 5 at home

Fiorentina, last 5

Fiorentina, last 5 away

Current streaks

Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.
Fiorentina: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 9 league games.
Fiorentina: both teams scored in each of their last 5 league games.
Inter: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Inter: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Fiorentina have not won in their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Inter and Fiorentina.

How Inter and Fiorentina compare this season

Stat	Inter (home, 4)	Fiorentina (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (3/3)	84%
Over 2.5	100% (4/4)	100% (3/3)	60%
Over 3.5	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	30%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	57%
Win %	100% (4/4)	33% (1/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	3.75	1.67	1.48
Goals against per game	1.50	2.67	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Inter	1	19	7
Fiorentina	18	4	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Inter 3 wins, 1 draw, Fiorentina 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 22 Mar 2026	Serie A	Fiorentina v Inter	1–1
Wed, 29 Oct 2025	Serie A	Inter v Fiorentina	3–0
Mon, 10 Feb 2025	Serie A	Inter v Fiorentina	2–1
Thu, 6 Feb 2025	Serie A	Fiorentina v Inter	3–0
Sun, 28 Jan 2024	Serie A	Fiorentina v Inter	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Inter v Fiorentina?: Our model makes Inter the more likely winner at 72%: Inter 72%, draw 16%, Fiorentina 11%. Inter won all 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Fiorentina?: Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in all 4 Inter home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Inter and Fiorentina played recently?: Latest first: Inter WWLWD, Fiorentina LLDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%

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