Bologna FC 1909 vs FC Internazionale Milano prediction

Serie A · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK

Full-time: Bologna FC 1909 1–3 FC Internazionale Milano (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave FC Internazionale Milano a 53% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–3 a 6% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (53%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (55%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (77%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (82%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (60%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (62%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Bologna FC 1909 vs FC Internazionale Milano prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:00 UK): Bologna FC 1909 24% · Draw 23% · FC Internazionale Milano 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.21–1.90. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Bologna vs Inter pre-match preview

Bologna (15th, 5 pts) host Inter (1st, 19 pts) in the Serie A. Bologna have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (WDLDL) and Inter 7 points from 5 (LWDWL). Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.

Our model favours Inter at 53% to Bologna's 24%. Expected goals are 1.21 for Bologna and 1.90 for Inter, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 55%. In their last 4 meetings, Bologna won 1, Inter won 1 and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Bologna FC 1909 vs FC Internazionale Milano?

FC Internazionale Milano are favoured at 53%, but the draw and a Bologna FC 1909 win together still account for 47%. Recent form: Bologna FC 1909 WDLDLL, FC Internazionale Milano LWDWLW (latest first).

Inter won 2 of 3 away games this season.

Bologna FC 1909

24%

Draw

23%

FC Internazionale Milano

53%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 60% and Under 2.5 is 40%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Inter games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.22
2.5 goals	60%	40%	1.66
3.5 goals	38%	62%	2.65

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: Bologna FC 1909 score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and FC Internazionale Milano in about 85%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Bologna home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.83
No	45%	2.21

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Bologna FC 1909 win	24%	4.19
Draw	23%	4.33
FC Internazionale Milano win	53%	1.89
Over 2.5	60%	1.66
Under 2.5	40%	2.51

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Bologna FC 1909 goals (rows) × FC Internazionale Milano goals (columns)
Bologna \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	8%	8%	5%	2%	1%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%	1%
2	3%	6%	6%	4%	2%	1%
3	1%	3%	2%	2%	1%	0%
4	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

1-2

10%

0-1

0-2

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Bologna and Inter played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Bologna, last 5

Bologna, last 5 at home

Inter, last 5

Inter, last 5 away

Current streaks

Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.
Inter: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Inter: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Bologna: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bologna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Bologna and Inter.

How Bologna and Inter compare this season

Stat	Bologna (home, 4)	Inter (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	84%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	60%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	30%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	67% (2/3)	57%
Win %	0% (0/4)	67% (2/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	1.00	2.00	1.48
Goals against per game	1.75	1.00	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Bologna	15	5	7
Inter	1	19	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Bologna 1 win, 2 draws, Inter 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 23 May 2026	Serie A	Bologna v Inter	3–3
Sun, 4 Jan 2026	Serie A	Inter v Bologna	3–1
Sun, 20 Apr 2025	Serie A	Bologna v Inter	1–0
Wed, 15 Jan 2025	Serie A	Inter v Bologna	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Bologna v Inter?: Our model makes Inter the more likely winner at 53%: Bologna 24%, draw 23%, Inter 53%. Inter won 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bologna v Inter?: Over 2.5 goals is 60% and under 2.5 is 40%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Inter games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Bologna and Inter played recently?: Latest first: Bologna WDLDL, Inter LWDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie ACagliarivBologna	U3.579%	32%	29%	39%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%

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