Cagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction

Serie A · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Cagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Cagliari Calcio 32% · Draw 29% · Bologna FC 1909 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.11–1.24. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Cagliari vs Bologna preview

Cagliari (7th, 13 pts) host Bologna (15th, 5 pts) in the Serie A. Cagliari have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (LDWWW) and Bologna 5 points from 5 (LWDLD). Bologna: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Cagliari 32%, Bologna 39%. Expected goals are 1.11 for Cagliari and 1.24 for Bologna, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Cagliari won 1, Bologna won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Cagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909?

This is close to a coin flip: Cagliari Calcio 32%, Bologna FC 1909 39%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Cagliari Calcio LDWWWL, Bologna FC 1909 LWDLDL (latest first).

Bologna won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Cagliari Calcio

32%

Draw

29%

Bologna FC 1909

39%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in all 3 Cagliari home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.46
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.40
3.5 goals	21%	79%	4.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: Cagliari Calcio score in about 67% of simulated outcomes and Bologna FC 1909 in about 71%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	50%	2.00
No	50%	2.00

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Cagliari Calcio win	32%	3.08
Draw	29%	3.47
Bologna FC 1909 win	39%	2.59
Over 2.5	42%	2.40
Under 2.5	58%	1.72

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Cagliari Calcio goals (rows) × Bologna FC 1909 goals (columns)
Cagliari \ Bologna	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	10%	14%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

0-1

11%

1-0

10%

0-0

10%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Cagliari and Bologna played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Cagliari, last 5

Cagliari, last 5 at home

Bologna, last 5

Bologna, last 5 away

Current streaks

Bologna: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Bologna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Cagliari and Bologna.

How Cagliari and Bologna compare this season

Stat	Cagliari (home, 3)	Bologna (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	84%
Over 2.5	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/3)	0% (0/3)	30%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	57%
Win %	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	47% home · 36% away
Goals for per game	0.67	0.67	1.48
Goals against per game	0.67	1.00	1.48

Serie A average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Cagliari	7	13	7
Bologna	15	5	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Cagliari 1 win, 1 draw, Bologna 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 3 May 2026	Serie A	Bologna v Cagliari	0–0
Sun, 19 Oct 2025	Serie A	Cagliari v Bologna	0–2
Sun, 2 Mar 2025	Serie A	Bologna v Cagliari	2–1
Tue, 29 Oct 2024	Serie A	Cagliari v Bologna	0–2
Sun, 14 Jan 2024	Serie A	Cagliari v Bologna	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cagliari v Bologna?: Our model makes Bologna the more likely winner at 39%: Cagliari 32%, draw 29%, Bologna 39%. Bologna won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Bologna?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in all 3 Cagliari home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Cagliari and Bologna played recently?: Latest first: Cagliari LDWWW, Bologna LWDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:00 · Serie ASerie AComo 1907vSassuolo	O1.582%	61%	21%	18%	82%	60%	38%	53%	60%	82%	38%	53%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ANapolivRoma	U3.579%	36%	29%	35%	69%	42%	21%	50%	42%	69%	21%	50%
19:45 · Serie ASerie ALaziovParma	U3.581%	58%	26%	16%	66%	39%	19%	47%	39%	66%	19%	47%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	16%	11%	86%	68%	46%	53%	68%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%

Other matches the same day