Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Portsmouth FC 34% · Draw 29% · Millwall FC 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.17–1.23. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Portsmouth vs Millwall preview

Portsmouth (13th, 15 pts) host Millwall (12th, 15 pts) in the Championship. Portsmouth have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (DWWLD) and Millwall 6 points from 5 (DLWDD). Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Portsmouth 34%, Millwall 37%. Expected goals are 1.17 for Portsmouth and 1.23 for Millwall, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Portsmouth won 2 and Millwall won 2; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Portsmouth FC 34%, Millwall FC 37%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Portsmouth FC DWWLDD, Millwall FC DLWDDL (latest first).

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Portsmouth FC

34%

Draw

29%

Millwall FC

37%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 14 of 23 Portsmouth home games last season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	70%	30%	1.44
2.5 goals	43%	57%	2.33
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.54

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Portsmouth FC score in about 69% of simulated outcomes and Millwall FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 5 Portsmouth home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.94
No	49%	2.06

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Portsmouth FC win	34%	2.91
Draw	29%	3.50
Millwall FC win	37%	2.70
Over 2.5	43%	2.33
Under 2.5	57%	1.75

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Portsmouth FC goals (rows) × Millwall FC goals (columns)
Portsmouth \ Millwall	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	10%	14%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

0-1

11%

1-0

10%

0-0

10%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Portsmouth and Millwall played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Portsmouth, last 5

Portsmouth, last 5 at home

Millwall, last 5

Millwall, last 5 away

Current streaks

Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Portsmouth and Millwall.

How Portsmouth and Millwall compare this season

Stat	Portsmouth (home, 5)	Millwall (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	80% (4/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	61%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	36%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	40% (2/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.60	1.40	1.44
Goals against per game	1.80	2.00	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Portsmouth	13	15	11
Millwall	12	15	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 2 wins, 0 draws, Millwall 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 4; both teams scored in 3 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 21 Feb 2026	Championship	Millwall v Portsmouth	1–3
Sat, 22 Nov 2025	Championship	Portsmouth v Millwall	3–1
Sat, 5 Apr 2025	Championship	Millwall v Portsmouth	2–1
Tue, 28 Jan 2025	Championship	Portsmouth v Millwall	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Portsmouth v Millwall?: Our model makes Millwall the more likely winner at 37%: Portsmouth 34%, draw 29%, Millwall 37%. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Portsmouth v Millwall?: Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 14 of 23 Portsmouth home games last season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Portsmouth and Millwall played recently?: Latest first: Portsmouth DWWLD, Millwall DLWDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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