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Millwall FC crest Millwall FC vs Lincoln City FC Lincoln City FC crest prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Full-time: Millwall FC 2–2 Lincoln City FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 24% chance, and the exact score 2–2 a 3% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Millwall FC vs Lincoln City FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Millwall FC 62% · Draw 24% · Lincoln City FC 14%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.72–0.68. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Millwall vs Lincoln City pre-match preview

Millwall (12th, 15 pts) host Lincoln City (18th, 12 pts) in the Championship. Millwall have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LWDDL) and Lincoln City 6 points from 5 (LLLWW). Lincoln City: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model makes Millwall clear favourites at 62%, with Lincoln City at 14%. Expected goals are 1.72 for Millwall and 0.68 for Lincoln City, and the most likely score is 1-0 (15%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5.

Millwall to win is the model's clearest call at 62%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Millwall FC vs Lincoln City FC?

Millwall FC are clear favourites at 62%, with Lincoln City FC at 14%. Recent form: Millwall FC LWDDLW, Lincoln City FC LLLWWD (latest first).

Lincoln City have not won in their last 4 league games.

Millwall FC62%
Draw24%
Lincoln City FC14%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals70%30%1.44
2.5 goals43%57%2.32
3.5 goals22%78%4.51

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: Millwall FC score in about 82% of simulated outcomes and Lincoln City FC in about 50%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes48%2.08
No52%1.93

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Millwall FC win62%1.61
Draw24%4.18
Lincoln City FC win14%7.21
Over 2.543%2.32
Under 2.557%1.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Millwall FC goals (rows) × Lincoln City FC goals (columns)
Millwall \ Lincoln012345
09%6%2%0%0%0%
115%11%4%1%0%0%
213%9%3%1%0%0%
38%5%2%0%0%0%
43%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-015%
2-013%
1-111%
0-09%
2-19%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Millwall and Lincoln City played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Millwall, last 5
  1. L 0–1 v Swansea
  2. W 1–0 at Preston NE
  3. D 2–2 v West Ham
  4. D 2–2 at Middlesbrough
  5. L 1–3 at Blackburn
Millwall, last 5 at home
  1. L 0–1 v Swansea
  2. D 2–2 v West Ham
  3. W 4–0 v Bolton
  4. L 0–3 v Wrexham
  5. W 3–0 v Norwich
Lincoln City, last 5
  1. L 0–6 v West Ham
  2. L 0–3 at Sheffield Utd
  3. L 1–2 v Swansea
  4. W 1–0 at Bristol City
  5. W 1–0 at Preston NE
Lincoln City, last 5 away
  1. L 0–3 at Sheffield Utd
  2. W 1–0 at Bristol City
  3. W 1–0 at Preston NE
  4. W 1–0 at Bolton
  5. L 1–2 at Middlesbrough

Current streaks

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Millwall and Lincoln City.

How Millwall and Lincoln City compare this season

StatMillwall (home, 6)Lincoln City (away, 6)Championship average
Over 1.583% (5/6)50% (3/6)77%
Over 2.583% (5/6)50% (3/6)61%
Over 3.550% (3/6)17% (1/6)36%
BTTS33% (2/6)33% (2/6)64%
Win %33% (2/6)50% (3/6)39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game1.831.001.44
Goals against per game1.331.171.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

TeamPosPtsP
Millwall121511
Lincoln City181211

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Millwall v Lincoln City?
Our model makes Millwall the more likely winner at 62%: Millwall 62%, draw 24%, Lincoln City 14%. Lincoln City have not won in their last 4 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Millwall v Lincoln City?
Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 15%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Millwall and Lincoln City played recently?
Latest first: Millwall LWDDL, Lincoln City LLLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Championship predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampCardiff City FC crestCardiffBirmingham City FC crestBirminghamO1.575%34%27%39%50%75%28%54%
15:00 · EFL ChampQueens Park Rangers FC crestQPRSwansea City AFC crestSwanseaU3.575%37%28%35%46%72%25%53%
15:00 · EFL ChampStoke City FC crestStokeBristol City FC crestBristol CityU3.578%40%29%31%42%69%22%51%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕
FT · La LigaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona crestEspanyol0Club Atlético de Madrid crestAtleti1O1.576%✕23%✕25%✕52%✓51%✕76%✕29%✕54%✕