Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Cardiff City FC 34% · Draw 27% · Birmingham City FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.28–1.38. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Cardiff vs Birmingham preview

Cardiff (19th, 11 pts) host Birmingham (4th, 20 pts) in the Championship. Cardiff have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (DWLWL) and Birmingham 13 points from 5 (WWWDW), so Birmingham arrive in clearly better form. Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Cardiff 34%, Birmingham 39%. Expected goals are 1.28 for Cardiff and 1.38 for Birmingham, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 50%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Cardiff won 3, Birmingham won 1 and 1 ended level; none had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Cardiff City FC 34%, Birmingham City FC 39%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: Cardiff City FC DWLWLD, Birmingham City FC WWWDWL (latest first).

Birmingham won 3 of 5 away games this season.

Cardiff City FC

34%

Draw

27%

Birmingham City FC

39%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 50% and Under 2.5 is 50%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	75%	25%	1.33
2.5 goals	50%	50%	2.01
3.5 goals	28%	72%	3.60

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Cardiff City FC score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Birmingham City FC in about 75%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 Cardiff home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.87
No	46%	2.16

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Cardiff City FC win	34%	2.92
Draw	27%	3.73
Birmingham City FC win	39%	2.57
Over 2.5	50%	2.01
Under 2.5	50%	1.99

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Cardiff City FC goals (rows) × Birmingham City FC goals (columns)
Cardiff \ Birmingham	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7%	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	5%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

1-2

1-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Cardiff and Birmingham played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Cardiff, last 5

Cardiff, last 5 at home

Birmingham, last 5

Birmingham, last 5 away

Current streaks

Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Cardiff: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Cardiff: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Cardiff: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Birmingham: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have won each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Cardiff and Birmingham.

How Cardiff and Birmingham compare this season

Stat	Cardiff (home, 5)	Birmingham (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	60% (3/5)	77%
Over 2.5	60% (3/5)	60% (3/5)	61%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	0% (0/5)	36%
BTTS	100% (5/5)	60% (3/5)	64%
Win %	40% (2/5)	60% (3/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.40	1.20	1.44
Goals against per game	1.20	0.80	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Cardiff	19	11	11
Birmingham	4	20	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Cardiff 3 wins, 1 draw, Birmingham 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 0 of 5; both teams scored in 1 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 10 Apr 2024	Championship	Birmingham v Cardiff	0–1
Wed, 13 Dec 2023	Championship	Cardiff v Birmingham	0–1
Tue, 14 Feb 2023	Championship	Birmingham v Cardiff	0–2
Sat, 13 Aug 2022	Championship	Cardiff v Birmingham	1–0
Sat, 30 Apr 2022	Championship	Cardiff v Birmingham	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Cardiff v Birmingham?: Our model makes Birmingham the more likely winner at 39%: Cardiff 34%, draw 27%, Birmingham 39%. Birmingham won 3 of 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cardiff v Birmingham?: Over 2.5 goals is 50% and under 2.5 is 50%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 5 of the last 5 meetings.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Cardiff and Birmingham played recently?: Latest first: Cardiff DWLWL, Birmingham WWWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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