Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC prediction

Championship · Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: Birmingham City FC 4–0 Preston North End FC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Birmingham City FC a 53% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–0 a 2% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

3 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (53%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (51%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-0 (12%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (79%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (72%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick under (54%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (75%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Birmingham City FC 53% · Draw 26% · Preston North End FC 21%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.60–0.92. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

Published Tue, 6 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Birmingham vs Preston NE pre-match preview

Birmingham (4th, 20 pts) host Preston NE (24th, 4 pts) in the Championship. Birmingham have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (WDWLD) and Preston NE 4 points from 5 (LDLLW). Preston NE have not won in their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Birmingham clear favourites at 53%, with Preston NE at 21%. Expected goals are 1.60 for Birmingham and 0.92 for Preston NE, and the most likely score is 1-0 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 54%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Birmingham won 3 and Preston NE won 1; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Birmingham City FC vs Preston North End FC?

Birmingham City FC are clear favourites at 53%, with Preston North End FC at 21%. Recent form: Birmingham City FC WDWLDD, Preston North End FC LDLLWL (latest first).

Preston NE lost 5 of 6 away games this season.

Birmingham City FC

53%

Draw

26%

Preston North End FC

21%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	72%	28%	1.38
2.5 goals	46%	54%	2.16
3.5 goals	25%	75%	4.04

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Birmingham City FC score in about 80% of simulated outcomes and Preston North End FC in about 60%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Birmingham home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Birmingham City FC win	53%	1.89
Draw	26%	3.85
Preston North End FC win	21%	4.72
Over 2.5	46%	2.16
Under 2.5	54%	1.86

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Birmingham City FC goals (rows) × Preston North End FC goals (columns)
Birmingham \ Preston	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	12%	12%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	5%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

12%

1-1

12%

2-0

10%

2-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Birmingham and Preston NE played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Birmingham, last 5

Birmingham, last 5 at home

Preston NE, last 5

Preston NE, last 5 away

Current streaks

Preston NE have not won in their last 6 league games.
Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Birmingham: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
Birmingham have won each of their last 3 league games.
Preston NE have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Birmingham and Preston NE.

How Birmingham and Preston NE compare this season

Stat	Birmingham (home, 6)	Preston NE (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (6/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	83% (5/6)	83% (5/6)	61%
Over 3.5	67% (4/6)	50% (3/6)	36%
BTTS	67% (4/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	0% (0/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.33	0.83	1.44
Goals against per game	1.17	2.50	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Birmingham	4	20	11
Preston NE	24	4	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Birmingham 3 wins, 0 draws, Preston NE 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 22 Apr 2026	Championship	Birmingham v Preston NE	2–1
Tue, 21 Oct 2025	Championship	Preston NE v Birmingham	0–1
Mon, 1 Apr 2024	Championship	Birmingham v Preston NE	1–0
Tue, 19 Sept 2023	Championship	Preston NE v Birmingham	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Birmingham v Preston NE?: Our model makes Birmingham the more likely winner at 53%: Birmingham 53%, draw 26%, Preston NE 21%. Preston NE lost 5 of 6 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Birmingham v Preston NE?: Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Birmingham and Preston NE played recently?: Latest first: Birmingham WDWLD, Preston NE LDLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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