Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Stoke City FC 40% · Draw 29% · Bristol City FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.28–1.10. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Stoke vs Bristol City preview

Stoke (6th, 19 pts) host Bristol City (16th, 14 pts) in the Championship. Stoke have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WLWWW) and Bristol City 4 points from 5 (LLDWL), so Stoke arrive in clearly better form. Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Stoke 40%, Bristol City 31%. Expected goals are 1.28 for Stoke and 1.10 for Bristol City, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Stoke won 2, Bristol City won 2 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Stoke City FC 40%, Bristol City FC 31%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Stoke City FC WLWWWD, Bristol City FC LLDWLL (latest first).

Stoke won 3 of 5 home games this season.

Stoke City FC

40%

Draw

29%

Bristol City FC

31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.36
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.62

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Stoke City FC score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Bristol City FC in about 67%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 Bristol City away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.05

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Stoke City FC win	40%	2.50
Draw	29%	3.50
Bristol City FC win	31%	3.18
Over 2.5	42%	2.36
Under 2.5	58%	1.74

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Stoke City FC goals (rows) × Bristol City FC goals (columns)
Stoke \ Bristol	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
1	11%	14%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	8%	8%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

1-0

11%

0-1

10%

0-0

10%

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Stoke and Bristol City played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Stoke, last 5

Stoke, last 5 at home

Bristol City, last 5

Bristol City, last 5 away

Current streaks

Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Bristol City have not won in their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Stoke and Bristol City.

How Stoke and Bristol City compare this season

Stat	Stoke (home, 5)	Bristol City (away, 5)	Championship average
Over 1.5	80% (4/5)	100% (5/5)	77%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	80% (4/5)	61%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	60% (3/5)	36%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	100% (5/5)	64%
Win %	60% (3/5)	40% (2/5)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.80	1.44
Goals against per game	1.20	1.80	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Stoke	6	19	11
Bristol City	16	14	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Stoke 2 wins, 1 draw, Bristol City 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 2 May 2026	Championship	Bristol City v Stoke	2–0
Sat, 1 Nov 2025	Championship	Stoke v Bristol City	5–1
Wed, 12 Feb 2025	Championship	Bristol City v Stoke	2–0
Tue, 22 Oct 2024	Championship	Stoke v Bristol City	2–2
Sat, 4 May 2024	Championship	Stoke v Bristol City	4–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stoke v Bristol City?: Our model makes Stoke the more likely winner at 40%: Stoke 40%, draw 29%, Bristol City 31%. Stoke won 3 of 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Bristol City?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Bristol City: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Stoke and Bristol City played recently?: Latest first: Stoke WLWWW, Bristol City LLDWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Championship predictions

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