Full-time: Stoke City FC 2–3 Middlesbrough FC (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Middlesbrough FC a 43% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–3 a 2% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.
Stoke City FC vs Middlesbrough FC prediction (Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Stoke City FC 30% · Draw 28% · Middlesbrough FC 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.10–1.37. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (9%).
Stoke (6th, 19 pts) host Middlesbrough (3rd, 22 pts) in the Championship. Stoke have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWWDW) and Middlesbrough 11 points from 5 (WDDWW). Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Our model favours Middlesbrough at 43% to Stoke's 30%. Expected goals are 1.10 for Stoke and 1.37 for Middlesbrough, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 55%, while 61% of Championship matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Stoke didn't win any, Middlesbrough won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Stoke City FC vs Middlesbrough FC?
Middlesbrough FC are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a Stoke City FC win together still account for 57%. Recent form: Stoke City FC WWWDWW, Middlesbrough FC WDDWWD (latest first).
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Stoke City FC score in about 67% of simulated outcomes and Middlesbrough FC in about 75%, and both need to happen.
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stoke v Middlesbrough?
Our model makes Middlesbrough the more likely winner at 43%: Stoke 30%, draw 28%, Middlesbrough 43%. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stoke v Middlesbrough?
Over 2.5 goals is 45% and under 2.5 is 55%, with expected goals of 2.5. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Stoke and Middlesbrough played recently?
Latest first: Stoke WWWDW, Middlesbrough WDDWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
