ProbaPredict

Aston Villa FC crest Aston Villa FC vs Manchester City FC Manchester City FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK

Aston Villa FC vs Manchester City FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 12:30 UK): Aston Villa FC 27% · Draw 25% · Manchester City FC 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.26–1.73. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Aston Villa vs Man City preview

Aston Villa (12th, 8 pts) host Man City (1st, 21 pts) in the Premier League. Aston Villa have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWWDW) and Man City 12 points from 5 (WWLWW). Man City are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Man City at 48% to Aston Villa's 27%. Expected goals are 1.26 for Aston Villa and 1.73 for Man City, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 59%. In their last 5 meetings, Aston Villa won 3 and Man City won 2; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Aston Villa FC vs Manchester City FC?

Manchester City FC are favoured at 48%, but the draw and a Aston Villa FC win together still account for 52%. Recent form: Aston Villa FC WWWDWL, Manchester City FC WWLWWW (latest first).

Man City won all 3 away games this season.

Aston Villa FC27%
Draw25%
Manchester City FC48%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 57% and Under 2.5 is 43%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Man City games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals81%19%1.24
2.5 goals57%43%1.74
3.5 goals35%65%2.85

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Aston Villa FC score in about 72% of simulated outcomes and Manchester City FC in about 82%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Aston Villa home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes59%1.71
No41%2.42

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Aston Villa FC win27%3.71
Draw25%3.96
Manchester City FC win48%2.09
Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:XWhatsAppTelegramFacebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Aston Villa FC goals (rows) × Manchester City FC goals (columns)
Aston \ Manchester012345
06%8%8%4%2%1%
15%12%9%5%2%1%
24%7%6%3%1%1%
32%3%3%1%1%0%
41%1%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-112%
1-29%
0-18%
0-28%
2-17%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Aston Villa and Man City played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Aston Villa, last 5
  1. W 3–1 v Viking
  2. W 1–0 at Newcastle
  3. W 6–0 v Fenerbahçe
  4. D 2–2 v Brentford
  5. W 3–2 at Tottenham
Aston Villa, last 5 at home
  1. W 3–1 v Viking
  2. W 6–0 v Fenerbahçe
  3. D 2–2 v Brentford
  4. L 1–2 v Nottingham
  5. L 0–1 v Arsenal
Man City, last 5
  1. W 5–1 v PAE AEK
  2. W 3–2 v Ipswich Town
  3. L 2–4 v PSG
  4. W 3–0 at Liverpool
  5. W 5–3 v Sunderland
Man City, last 5 away
  1. W 3–0 at Liverpool
  2. W 1–0 at Man United
  3. W 2–0 at Porto
  4. W 4–1 at Crystal Palace
  5. D 1–1 at Bournemouth

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Aston Villa and Man City.

How Aston Villa and Man City compare this season

StatAston Villa (home, 3)Man City (away, 3)Premier League average
Over 1.567% (2/3)67% (2/3)76%
Over 2.567% (2/3)67% (2/3)54%
Over 3.533% (1/3)33% (1/3)36%
BTTS67% (2/3)33% (1/3)53%
Win %0% (0/3)100% (3/3)40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game1.002.671.45
Goals against per game1.670.331.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Aston Villa1287
Man City1217

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 3 wins, 0 draws, Man City 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 24 May 2026Premier LeagueMan City v Aston Villa1–2
Sun, 26 Oct 2025Premier LeagueAston Villa v Man City1–0
Tue, 22 Apr 2025Premier LeagueMan City v Aston Villa2–1
Sat, 21 Dec 2024Premier LeagueAston Villa v Man City2–1
Wed, 3 Apr 2024Premier LeagueMan City v Aston Villa4–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Aston Villa v Man City?
Our model makes Man City the more likely winner at 48%: Aston Villa 27%, draw 25%, Man City 48%. Man City won all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Man City?
Over 2.5 goals is 57% and under 2.5 is 43%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Man City games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Aston Villa and Man City played recently?
Latest first: Aston Villa WWWDW, Man City WWLWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
15:00 · Premier LgCoventry City FC crestCoventry CityFulham FC crestFulhamO1.575%36%27%37%50%75%28%57%
15:00 · Premier LgArsenal FC crestArsenalEverton FC crestEvertonU3.577%64%24%12%44%71%23%51%
17:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaTottenham Hotspur FC crestTottenhamO1.582%54%24%22%60%82%37%59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgManchester United FC crestMan UnitedAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthO1.582%44%25%31%59%82%37%60%
14:00 · Premier LgHull City AFC crestHull CityBrentford FC crestBrentfordO1.576%22%25%53%52%76%30%56%
14:00 · Premier LgLiverpool FC crestLiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion FC crestBrightonO1.583%50%24%26%61%83%38%59%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
00:00 · BrasileirãoCruzeiro EC crestCruzeiroClube do Remo crestClube do RemoO1.577%60%23%17%53%77%30%50%
12:30 · EFL ChampPortsmouth FC crestPortsmouthMillwall FC crestMillwallU3.578%34%29%37%43%70%22%51%
12:30 · EFL ChampCharlton Athletic FC crestCharltonNorwich City FC crestNorwichU3.577%32%28%40%45%71%23%52%
12:30 · EFL ChampSheffield United FC crestSheffield UtdDerby County FC crestDerby CountyO1.576%50%25%25%51%76%29%53%
13:00 · La LigaRayo Vallecano de Madrid crestRayo VallecanoElche CF crestElcheU3.579%44%28%27%42%69%21%51%