ProbaPredict

Newcastle United FC crest Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC Aston Villa FC crest prediction

Premier League · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Full-time: Newcastle United FC 0–1 Aston Villa FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Aston Villa FC a 31% chance of winning, and the exact score 0–1 a 6% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 3.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Newcastle United FC 45% · Draw 24% · Aston Villa FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.74–1.43. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa pre-match preview

Newcastle (11th, 8 pts) host Aston Villa (12th, 8 pts) in the Premier League. Newcastle have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (LWLDW) and Aston Villa 10 points from 5 (WDWLW). Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Newcastle at 45% to Aston Villa's 31%. Expected goals are 1.74 for Newcastle and 1.43 for Aston Villa, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. In their last 4 meetings, Newcastle won 1, Aston Villa won 2 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Newcastle United FC vs Aston Villa FC?

Newcastle United FC are favoured at 45%, but the draw and a Aston Villa FC win together still account for 55%. Recent form: Newcastle United FC LWLDWD, Aston Villa FC WDWLWD (latest first).

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Newcastle United FC45%
Draw24%
Aston Villa FC31%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals83%17%1.21
2.5 goals61%39%1.63
3.5 goals39%61%2.56

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: Newcastle United FC score in about 83% of simulated outcomes and Aston Villa FC in about 76%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes60%1.67
No40%2.50

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Newcastle United FC win45%2.23
Draw24%4.17
Aston Villa FC win31%3.20
Over 2.561%1.63
Under 2.539%2.59

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Newcastle United FC goals (rows) × Aston Villa FC goals (columns)
Newcastle \ Aston012345
05%6%4%2%1%0%
17%11%7%4%1%0%
26%9%6%3%1%0%
34%5%4%2%1%0%
42%2%2%1%0%0%
51%1%1%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
2-19%
1-27%
1-07%
2-26%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Newcastle and Aston Villa played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Newcastle, last 5
  1. L 1–4 at Coventry City
  2. W 2–1 v Hull City
  3. L 1–4 at Leeds
  4. D 2–2 v Bournemouth
  5. W 2–0 at Tottenham
Newcastle, last 5 at home
  1. W 2–1 v Hull City
  2. D 2–2 v Bournemouth
  3. D 2–2 v Liverpool
  4. W 3–1 v West Ham
  5. W 3–1 v Brighton
Aston Villa, last 5
  1. W 6–0 v Fenerbahçe
  2. D 2–2 v Brentford
  3. W 3–2 at Tottenham
  4. L 1–2 v Nottingham
  5. W 3–2 at Club Brugge
Aston Villa, last 5 away
  1. W 3–2 at Tottenham
  2. W 3–2 at Club Brugge
  3. D 0–0 at Hull City
  4. L 0–4 at Brighton
  5. W 2–1 at Man City

Current streaks

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Newcastle and Aston Villa.

How Newcastle and Aston Villa compare this season

StatNewcastle (home, 4)Aston Villa (away, 4)Premier League average
Over 1.575% (3/4)50% (2/4)76%
Over 2.575% (3/4)50% (2/4)54%
Over 3.550% (2/4)50% (2/4)36%
BTTS75% (3/4)25% (1/4)53%
Win %25% (1/4)50% (2/4)40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game1.501.001.45
Goals against per game1.501.501.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

TeamPosPtsP
Newcastle1187
Aston Villa1287

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Newcastle 1 win, 1 draw, Aston Villa 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 1 of 4.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 25 Jan 2026Premier LeagueNewcastle v Aston Villa0–2
Sat, 16 Aug 2025Premier LeagueAston Villa v Newcastle0–0
Sat, 19 Apr 2025Premier LeagueAston Villa v Newcastle4–1
Thu, 26 Dec 2024Premier LeagueNewcastle v Aston Villa3–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Newcastle v Aston Villa?
Our model makes Newcastle the more likely winner at 45%: Newcastle 45%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 31%. Model expects 3.2 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle v Aston Villa?
Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Newcastle home games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Newcastle and Aston Villa played recently?
Latest first: Newcastle LWLDW, Aston Villa WDWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Premier League predictions
Sat, 24 Oct 2026
12:30 · Premier LgAston Villa FC crestAston VillaManchester City FC crestMan CityO1.581%27%25%48%57%81%35%59%
15:00 · Premier LgCoventry City FC crestCoventry CityFulham FC crestFulhamO1.575%36%27%37%50%75%28%57%
15:00 · Premier LgArsenal FC crestArsenalEverton FC crestEvertonU3.577%64%24%12%44%71%23%51%
17:30 · Premier LgChelsea FC crestChelseaTottenham Hotspur FC crestTottenhamO1.582%54%24%22%60%82%37%59%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Premier LgManchester United FC crestMan UnitedAFC Bournemouth crestBournemouthO1.582%44%25%31%59%82%37%60%
14:00 · Premier LgHull City AFC crestHull CityBrentford FC crestBrentfordO1.576%22%25%53%52%76%30%56%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sat, 17 Oct 2026
FT · BrasileirãoMirassol FC crestMirassol2SC Internacional crestInternacional0U3.574%✓48%✓26%✕25%✕48%✕73%✓26%✕51%✕
FT · EFL ChampMillwall FC crestMillwall2Lincoln City FC crestLincoln City2U3.578%✕62%✕24%✓14%✕43%✓70%✓22%✓48%✓
FT · EFL ChampMiddlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough2Cardiff City FC crestCardiff2O1.581%✓61%✕22%✓18%✕58%✓81%✓36%✓54%✓
FT · EFL ChampWatford FC crestWatford2Charlton Athletic FC crestCharlton0U3.582%✓39%✓30%✕31%✕37%✕65%✓18%✕50%✕
FT · Premier LgEverton FC crestEverton0Chelsea FC crestChelsea2O1.575%✓38%✕27%✕35%✓50%✕75%✓28%✕57%✕