Chelsea FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC prediction

Premier League · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK

Chelsea FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 17:30 UK): Chelsea FC 54% · Draw 24% · Tottenham Hotspur FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.92–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Chelsea vs Tottenham preview

Chelsea (4th, 13 pts) host Tottenham (16th, 6 pts) in the Premier League. Chelsea have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WWLDL) and Tottenham 6 points from 5 (WDLDD). Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model makes Chelsea clear favourites at 54%, with Tottenham at 22%. Expected goals are 1.92 for Chelsea and 1.17 for Tottenham, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 59%. In their last 5 meetings, Chelsea won all 5; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Chelsea FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC?

Chelsea FC are clear favourites at 54%, with Tottenham Hotspur FC at 22%. Recent form: Chelsea FC WWLDLW, Tottenham Hotspur FC WDLDDL (latest first).

Chelsea won 2 of 3 home games this season.

Chelsea FC

54%

Draw

24%

Tottenham Hotspur FC

22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 60% and Under 2.5 is 40%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	82%	18%	1.22
2.5 goals	60%	40%	1.68
3.5 goals	37%	63%	2.68

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Chelsea FC score in about 85% of simulated outcomes and Tottenham Hotspur FC in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.71
No	41%	2.41

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Chelsea FC win	54%	1.85
Draw	24%	4.22
Tottenham Hotspur FC win	22%	4.49
Over 2.5	60%	1.68
Under 2.5	40%	2.48

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Chelsea FC goals (rows) × Tottenham Hotspur FC goals (columns)
Chelsea \ Tottenham	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	8%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	4%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

2-0

1-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Chelsea and Tottenham played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Chelsea, last 5

Chelsea, last 5 at home

Tottenham, last 5

Tottenham, last 5 away

Current streaks

Chelsea: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Tottenham: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Tottenham: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Chelsea and Tottenham.

How Chelsea and Tottenham compare this season

Stat	Chelsea (home, 3)	Tottenham (away, 3)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	76%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	54%
Over 3.5	100% (3/3)	0% (0/3)	36%
BTTS	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	53%
Win %	67% (2/3)	0% (0/3)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	3.67	0.33	1.45
Goals against per game	2.00	1.33	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Chelsea	4	13	7
Tottenham	16	6	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Chelsea 5 wins, 0 draws, Tottenham 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Tue, 19 May 2026	Premier League	Chelsea v Tottenham	2–1
Sat, 1 Nov 2025	Premier League	Tottenham v Chelsea	0–1
Thu, 3 Apr 2025	Premier League	Chelsea v Tottenham	1–0
Sun, 8 Dec 2024	Premier League	Tottenham v Chelsea	3–4
Thu, 2 May 2024	Premier League	Chelsea v Tottenham	2–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Chelsea v Tottenham?: Our model makes Chelsea the more likely winner at 54%: Chelsea 54%, draw 24%, Tottenham 22%. Chelsea won 2 of 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v Tottenham?: Over 2.5 goals is 60% and under 2.5 is 40%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in all 3 Chelsea home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Chelsea and Tottenham played recently?: Latest first: Chelsea WWLDL, Tottenham WDLDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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