Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC prediction (Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Liverpool FC 50% · Draw 24% · Brighton & Hove Albion FC 26%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.85–1.29. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).

Published Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Liverpool vs Brighton preview

Liverpool (5th, 12 pts) host Brighton (3rd, 16 pts) in the Premier League. Liverpool have taken 12 points from their last 5 games (WWWLW) and Brighton 13 points from 5 (WWWWD). Brighton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

Our model favours Liverpool at 50% to Brighton's 26%. Expected goals are 1.85 for Liverpool and 1.29 for Brighton, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 59%. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 3 and Brighton won 2; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC?

Liverpool FC are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a Brighton & Hove Albion FC win together still account for 50%. Recent form: Liverpool FC WWWLWD, Brighton & Hove Albion FC WWWWDL (latest first).

Liverpool won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.

Liverpool FC

50%

Draw

24%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

26%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Brighton games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.65
3.5 goals	38%	62%	2.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Liverpool FC score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Brighton & Hove Albion FC in about 73%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 26 of 38 Liverpool games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.68
No	41%	2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Liverpool FC win	50%	2.02
Draw	24%	4.11
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win	26%	3.83
Over 2.5	61%	1.65
Under 2.5	39%	2.54

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Liverpool FC goals (rows) × Brighton & Hove Albion FC goals (columns)
Liverpool \ Brighton	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	4%	2%	1%	0%
1	7%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	10%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

2-0

1-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Liverpool and Brighton played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Liverpool, last 5

Liverpool, last 5 at home

Brighton, last 5

Brighton, last 5 away

Current streaks

Brighton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Brighton are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Brighton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 4 league games.
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 4 league games.
Brighton have won each of their last 4 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Liverpool and Brighton.

How Liverpool and Brighton compare this season

Stat	Liverpool (home, 3)	Brighton (away, 3)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	100% (3/3)	76%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	54%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	67% (2/3)	36%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	33% (1/3)	53%
Win %	0% (0/3)	67% (2/3)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	0.67	3.33	1.45
Goals against per game	1.67	1.33	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Liverpool	5	12	7
Brighton	3	16	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 3 wins, 0 draws, Brighton 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 21 Mar 2026	Premier League	Brighton v Liverpool	2–1
Sat, 13 Dec 2025	Premier League	Liverpool v Brighton	2–0
Mon, 19 May 2025	Premier League	Brighton v Liverpool	3–2
Sat, 2 Nov 2024	Premier League	Liverpool v Brighton	2–1
Sun, 31 Mar 2024	Premier League	Liverpool v Brighton	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Liverpool v Brighton?: Our model makes Liverpool the more likely winner at 50%: Liverpool 50%, draw 24%, Brighton 26%. Liverpool won 3 of 5 of the last 5 meetings.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool v Brighton?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 5 of 7 Brighton games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Liverpool and Brighton played recently?: Latest first: Liverpool WWWLW, Brighton WWWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

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