Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC prediction

Premier League · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK

Full-time: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 5–0 Crystal Palace FC (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Brighton & Hove Albion FC a 59% chance of winning, and the exact score 5–0 a 1% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (59%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (79%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (56%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (66%)Incorrect
Both teams to score: pick yes (57%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (81%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UK): Brighton & Hove Albion FC 59% · Draw 23% · Crystal Palace FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.93–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Brighton vs Crystal Palace pre-match preview

Brighton (3rd, 16 pts) host Crystal Palace (14th, 7 pts) in the Premier League. Brighton have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WWWDL) and Crystal Palace 7 points from 5 (WDLWL). Brighton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Brighton clear favourites at 59%, with Crystal Palace at 19%. Expected goals are 1.93 for Brighton and 1.00 for Crystal Palace, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

The goal markets sit close to the Premier League norm: Over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 57%. In their last 4 meetings, Brighton didn't win any, Crystal Palace won 3 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Brighton to win is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Crystal Palace FC?

Brighton & Hove Albion FC are clear favourites at 59%, with Crystal Palace FC at 19%. Recent form: Brighton & Hove Albion FC WWWDLW, Crystal Palace FC WDLWLL (latest first).

Brighton won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

59%

Draw

23%

Crystal Palace FC

19%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 56% and Under 2.5 is 44%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brighton home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.26
2.5 goals	56%	44%	1.78
3.5 goals	34%	66%	2.97

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Brighton & Hove Albion FC score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Crystal Palace FC in about 64%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.77
No	43%	2.30

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Brighton & Hove Albion FC win	59%	1.70
Draw	23%	4.44
Crystal Palace FC win	19%	5.37
Over 2.5	56%	1.78
Under 2.5	44%	2.28

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Brighton & Hove Albion FC goals (rows) × Crystal Palace FC goals (columns)
Brighton \ Crystal	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	11%	5%	2%	0%	0%
2	10%	10%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-0

10%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Brighton and Crystal Palace played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Brighton, last 5

Brighton, last 5 at home

Crystal Palace, last 5

Crystal Palace, last 5 away

Current streaks

Brighton: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Brighton are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Brighton: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 4 league games.
Brighton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 4 league games.
Brighton have won each of their last 4 league games.

Premier League games only, runs of three or more. Brighton and Crystal Palace.

How Brighton and Crystal Palace compare this season

Stat	Brighton (home, 4)	Crystal Palace (away, 4)	Premier League average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	76%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	54%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	36%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	53%
Win %	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	40% home · 31% away
Goals for per game	3.25	0.75	1.45
Goals against per game	0.25	2.25	1.45

Premier League average from 70 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Premier League table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Brighton	3	16	7
Crystal Palace	14	7	7

Full Premier League table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Brighton 0 wins, 1 draw, Crystal Palace 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Feb 2026	Premier League	Brighton v Crystal Palace	0–1
Sun, 9 Nov 2025	Premier League	Crystal Palace v Brighton	0–0
Sat, 5 Apr 2025	Premier League	Crystal Palace v Brighton	2–1
Sun, 15 Dec 2024	Premier League	Brighton v Crystal Palace	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Brighton v Crystal Palace?: Our model makes Brighton the more likely winner at 59%: Brighton 59%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace 19%. Brighton won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton v Crystal Palace?: Over 2.5 goals is 56% and under 2.5 is 44%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Brighton home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Brighton and Crystal Palace played recently?: Latest first: Brighton WWWDL, Crystal Palace WDLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Premier League predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
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