CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander prediction

La Liga · Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK

Full-time: CA Osasuna 2–0 Real Racing Club de Santander (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave CA Osasuna a 48% chance of winning, and the exact score 2–0 a 6% chance. The model's favourite came through, though with only a modest edge.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (48%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (60%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (9%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (78%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (87%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (68%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (54%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander prediction (Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK): CA Osasuna 48% · Draw 22% · Real Racing Club de Santander 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.98–1.52. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 60%, No 40%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%).

Published Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 19 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Osasuna vs Santander pre-match preview

Osasuna (10th, 11 pts) host Santander (17th, 8 pts) in the La Liga. Osasuna have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LDLLL) and Santander 4 points from 5 (DLLWL). Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.

Our model favours Osasuna at 48% to Santander's 30%. Expected goals are 1.98 for Osasuna and 1.52 for Santander, and the most likely score is 1-1 (9%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 68%, against a La Liga average of 56%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win CA Osasuna vs Real Racing Club de Santander?

CA Osasuna are favoured at 48%, but the draw and a Real Racing Club de Santander win together still account for 52%. Recent form: CA Osasuna LDLLLW, Real Racing Club de Santander DLLWLW (latest first).

Santander lost all 5 away games this season.

CA Osasuna

48%

Draw

22%

Real Racing Club de Santander

30%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 68%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Santander games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	87%	13%	1.15
2.5 goals	68%	32%	1.47
3.5 goals	46%	54%	2.15

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance: CA Osasuna score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Real Racing Club de Santander in about 79%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 6 of 9 Santander games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	60%	1.68
No	40%	2.47

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
CA Osasuna win	48%	2.08
Draw	22%	4.48
Real Racing Club de Santander win	30%	3.39
Over 2.5	68%	1.47
Under 2.5	32%	3.12

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CA Osasuna goals (rows) × Real Racing Club de Santander goals (columns)
CA \ Real	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
1	6%	9%	7%	4%	1%	0%
2	6%	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%
3	4%	6%	5%	2%	1%	0%
4	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

2-1

1-2

2-2

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Osasuna and Santander played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Osasuna, last 5

Osasuna, last 5 at home

Santander, last 5

Santander, last 5 away

Current streaks

Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Osasuna: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Santander have not won in their last 4 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Osasuna and Santander.

How Osasuna and Santander compare this season

Stat	Osasuna (home, 5)	Santander (away, 5)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	60% (3/5)	80% (4/5)	76%
Over 2.5	0% (0/5)	60% (3/5)	56%
Over 3.5	0% (0/5)	60% (3/5)	39%
BTTS	20% (1/5)	40% (2/5)	60%
Win %	40% (2/5)	0% (0/5)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	0.80	0.80	1.54
Goals against per game	0.60	3.60	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Osasuna	10	11	9
Santander	17	8	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Osasuna v Santander?: Our model makes Osasuna the more likely winner at 48%: Osasuna 48%, draw 22%, Santander 30%. Santander lost all 5 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Osasuna v Santander?: Over 2.5 goals is 68% and under 2.5 is 32%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Santander games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 9%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Osasuna and Santander played recently?: Latest first: Osasuna LDLLL, Santander DLLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovElche	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaSantandervEspanyol	O1.583%	41%	24%	35%	83%	61%	39%	58%	61%	83%	39%	58%
17:30 · La LigaLa LigaValenciavVillarreal	O1.579%	30%	25%	44%	79%	55%	33%	56%	55%	79%	33%	56%
20:00 · La LigaLa LigaAtletivDeportivo	O1.581%	69%	19%	12%	81%	59%	36%	53%	59%	81%	36%	53%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaCeltavReal Betis	O1.577%	38%	26%	35%	77%	53%	30%	55%	53%	77%	30%	55%

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