Club Atlético de Madrid vs RC Deportivo La Coruña prediction

La Liga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Club Atlético de Madrid vs RC Deportivo La Coruña prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): Club Atlético de Madrid 69% · Draw 19% · RC Deportivo La Coruña 12%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.23–0.82. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 53%, No 47%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Atleti vs Deportivo preview

Atleti (2nd, 22 pts) host Deportivo (9th, 11 pts) in the La Liga. Atleti have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (DWWWW) and Deportivo 3 points from 5 (DLDLD), so Atleti arrive in clearly better form. Atleti are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.

Our model makes Atleti clear favourites at 69%, with Deportivo at 12%. Expected goals are 2.23 for Atleti and 0.82 for Deportivo, and the most likely score is 2-0 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 53%.

Atleti to win is the model's clearest call at 69%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Club Atlético de Madrid vs RC Deportivo La Coruña?

Club Atlético de Madrid are clear favourites at 69%, with RC Deportivo La Coruña at 12%. Recent form: Club Atlético de Madrid DWWWWW, RC Deportivo La Coruña DLDLDW (latest first).

Atleti won 3 of 4 home games this season.

Club Atlético de Madrid

69%

Draw

19%

RC Deportivo La Coruña

12%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 59% and Under 2.5 is 41%.

Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Atleti games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	81%	19%	1.23
2.5 goals	59%	41%	1.70
3.5 goals	36%	64%	2.74

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance: Club Atlético de Madrid score in about 89% of simulated outcomes and RC Deportivo La Coruña in about 57%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 4 Deportivo away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	53%	1.90
No	47%	2.11

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Club Atlético de Madrid win	69%	1.45
Draw	19%	5.30
RC Deportivo La Coruña win	12%	8.28
Over 2.5	59%	1.70
Under 2.5	41%	2.43

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Club Atlético de Madrid goals (rows) × RC Deportivo La Coruña goals (columns)
Club \ RC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%
1	10%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	10%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	5%	4%	2%	0%	0%	0%
5	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

12%

1-0

10%

2-1

10%

1-1

3-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Atleti and Deportivo played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Atleti, last 5

Atleti, last 5 at home

Deportivo, last 5

Deportivo, last 5 away

Current streaks

Atleti are unbeaten in their last 5 league games.
Atleti have won each of their last 5 league games.
Deportivo have not won in their last 5 league games.
Deportivo: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Deportivo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Atleti and Deportivo.

How Atleti and Deportivo compare this season

Stat	Atleti (home, 4)	Deportivo (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	100% (4/4)	76%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	56%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	39%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	100% (4/4)	60%
Win %	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	44% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	2.50	1.75	1.54
Goals against per game	0.75	1.75	1.54

La Liga average from 89 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Atleti	2	22	9
Deportivo	9	11	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Atleti v Deportivo?: Our model makes Atleti the more likely winner at 69%: Atleti 69%, draw 19%, Deportivo 12%. Atleti won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atleti v Deportivo?: Over 2.5 goals is 59% and under 2.5 is 41%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 Atleti games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Atleti and Deportivo played recently?: Latest first: Atleti DWWWW, Deportivo DLDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovElche	U3.579%	44%	28%	27%	69%	42%	21%	51%	42%	69%	21%	51%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaSantandervEspanyol	O1.583%	41%	24%	35%	83%	61%	39%	58%	61%	83%	39%	58%
17:30 · La LigaLa LigaValenciavVillarreal	O1.579%	30%	25%	44%	79%	55%	33%	56%	55%	79%	33%	56%
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaCeltavReal Betis	O1.577%	38%	26%	35%	77%	53%	30%	55%	53%	77%	30%	55%
17:30 · La LigaLa LigaReal SociedadvLevante	O1.581%	51%	24%	25%	81%	59%	37%	56%	59%	81%	37%	56%

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