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VfB Stuttgart crest VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid Club Atlético de Madrid crest prediction

Champions League · Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

Full-time: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Club Atlético de Madrid (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave the draw a 25% chance, and the exact score 1–1 a 11% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

4 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

Scores are after 90 minutes; extra time and penalties are not counted.

How each market was graded

Published before kick-off, unchanged

VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid prediction (Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): VfB Stuttgart 35% · Draw 25% · Club Atlético de Madrid 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.49–1.62. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Tue, 20 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Stuttgart vs Atleti pre-match preview

Stuttgart host Atleti in the Champions League. Stuttgart have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LWWLL) and Atleti 15 points from 5 (WWWWW), so Atleti arrive in clearly better form. Stuttgart: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 Champions League games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Stuttgart 35%, Atleti 40%. Expected goals are 1.49 for Stuttgart and 1.62 for Atleti, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Over 2.5 goals is 60%, below the Champions League rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Champions League match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 60%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Club Atlético de Madrid?

This is close to a coin flip: VfB Stuttgart 35%, Club Atlético de Madrid 40%, with the draw at 25%. Recent form: VfB Stuttgart LWWLLW, Club Atlético de Madrid WWWWWW (latest first).

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

VfB Stuttgart35%
Draw25%
Club Atlético de Madrid40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 60% and Under 2.5 is 40%.

Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Stuttgart games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals82%18%1.22
2.5 goals60%40%1.66
3.5 goals38%62%2.65

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: VfB Stuttgart score in about 78% of simulated outcomes and Club Atlético de Madrid in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 2 of 3 Stuttgart games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes58%1.74
No42%2.35

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
VfB Stuttgart win35%2.85
Draw25%4.08
Club Atlético de Madrid win40%2.47
Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: VfB Stuttgart goals (rows) × Club Atlético de Madrid goals (columns)
VfB \ Club012345
05%7%6%3%1%0%
16%11%9%5%2%1%
25%8%7%4%1%0%
32%4%3%2%1%0%
41%2%1%1%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-111%
1-29%
2-18%
0-17%
2-27%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Stuttgart and Atleti played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Stuttgart, last 5
  1. L 0–1 at HSV
  2. W 3–0 at Sl. Bratislava
  3. W 2–0 at Paderborn
  4. L 0–1 v Dortmund
  5. L 1–2 at Hoffenheim
Stuttgart, last 5 at home
  1. L 0–1 v Dortmund
  2. W 3–1 v Viking
  3. W 4–1 v Köln
  4. W 3–1 v Leverkusen
  5. D 1–1 v Werder Bremen
Atleti, last 5
  1. W 1–0 at Espanyol
  2. W 2–0 v Man United
  3. W 2–1 at Alavés
  4. W 2–1 v Real Madrid
  5. W 4–0 v Osasuna
Atleti, last 5 away
  1. W 1–0 at Espanyol
  2. W 2–1 at Alavés
  3. W 3–0 at Real Sociedad
  4. L 1–2 at Liverpool
  5. L 0–3 at Athletic

Current streaks

Champions League games only, runs of three or more. Stuttgart and Atleti.

How Stuttgart and Atleti compare this season

StatStuttgart (home, 2)Atleti (away, 2)Champions League average
Over 1.5100% (2/2)100% (2/2)87%
Over 2.550% (1/2)50% (1/2)74%
Over 3.550% (1/2)0% (0/2)63%
BTTS100% (2/2)100% (2/2)67%
Win %50% (1/2)0% (0/2)59% home · 30% away
Goals for per game2.001.002.05
Goals against per game1.001.502.05

Champions League average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Stuttgart v Atleti?
Our model makes Atleti the more likely winner at 40%: Stuttgart 35%, draw 25%, Atleti 40%. Model expects 3.1 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Stuttgart v Atleti?
Over 2.5 goals is 60% and under 2.5 is 40%, with expected goals of 3.1. Over 2.5 in 2 of 3 Stuttgart games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Stuttgart and Atleti played recently?
Latest first: Stuttgart LWWLL, Atleti WWWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
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