Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

Full-time: Hamburger SV 1–0 VfB Stuttgart (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Hamburger SV a 28% chance of winning, and the exact score 1–0 a 5% chance. Not the model's top pick. An outcome rated like this happens about 1 time in 4.

2 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick away (50%)Incorrect
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (85%)Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (65%)Incorrect
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (57%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (63%)Incorrect
Correct score: pick 1-1 (10%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 12 (77%)Correct

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): Hamburger SV 28% · Draw 23% · VfB Stuttgart 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.41–1.94. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 63%, No 37%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

HSV vs Stuttgart pre-match preview

HSV (9th, 9 pts) host Stuttgart (13th, 6 pts) in the Bundesliga. HSV have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WWLLL) and Stuttgart 9 points from 5 (WWLLW). HSV are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Our model favours Stuttgart at 50% to HSV's 28%. Expected goals are 1.41 for HSV and 1.94 for Stuttgart, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

Over 2.5 goals is 65%, below the Bundesliga rate of 74%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Bundesliga match.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 65%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

VfB Stuttgart are favoured at 50%, but the draw and a Hamburger SV win together still account for 50%. Recent form: Hamburger SV WWLLLD, VfB Stuttgart WWLLWW (latest first).

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Hamburger SV

28%

Draw

23%

VfB Stuttgart

50%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 65%.

Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 HSV games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	85%	15%	1.18
2.5 goals	65%	35%	1.54
3.5 goals	43%	57%	2.32

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance: Hamburger SV score in about 76% of simulated outcomes and VfB Stuttgart in about 86%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 14 of 17 Stuttgart away games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	63%	1.60
No	37%	2.68

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Hamburger SV win	28%	3.60
Draw	23%	4.40
VfB Stuttgart win	50%	2.02
Over 2.5	65%	1.54
Under 2.5	35%	2.86

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Hamburger SV goals (rows) × VfB Stuttgart goals (columns)
Hamburger \ VfB	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%
1	5%	10%	9%	6%	3%	1%
2	4%	7%	7%	4%	2%	1%
3	2%	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

1-2

2-1

0-2

2-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have HSV and Stuttgart played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

HSV are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
HSV have won each of their last 3 league games.
Stuttgart: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
Stuttgart: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. HSV and Stuttgart.

How HSV and Stuttgart compare this season

Stat	HSV (home, 3)	Stuttgart (away, 4)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	67% (2/3)	75% (3/4)	81%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	50% (2/4)	74%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	25% (1/4)	56%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	50% (2/4)	59%
Win %	67% (2/3)	25% (1/4)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.00	1.84
Goals against per game	2.00	2.00	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
HSV	9	9	6
Stuttgart	13	6	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: HSV 1 win, 0 draws, Stuttgart 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 12 Apr 2026	Bundesliga	Stuttgart v HSV	4–0
Sun, 30 Nov 2025	Bundesliga	HSV v Stuttgart	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win HSV v Stuttgart?: Our model makes Stuttgart the more likely winner at 50%: HSV 28%, draw 23%, Stuttgart 50%. Model expects 3.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in HSV v Stuttgart?: Over 2.5 goals is 65% and under 2.5 is 35%, with expected goals of 3.4. Over 2.5 in 4 of 6 HSV games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have HSV and Stuttgart played recently?: Latest first: HSV WWLLL, Stuttgart WWLLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Sat, 24 Oct 2026
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaAugsburgvUnion Berlin	O1.577%	50%	25%	25%	77%	52%	30%	59%	52%	77%	30%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaKölnvSchalke	U3.574%	45%	27%	28%	74%	48%	26%	58%	48%	74%	26%	58%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaMainzvWerder Bremen	O1.579%	52%	24%	24%	79%	56%	33%	59%	56%	79%	33%	59%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaLeipzigvElversberg	O1.586%	60%	20%	20%	86%	67%	46%	62%	67%	86%	46%	62%
14:30 · BundesligaBundesligaPaderbornvHSV	O1.581%	41%	25%	34%	81%	59%	36%	61%	59%	81%	36%	61%
17:30 · BundesligaBundesligaDortmundvFrankfurt	O1.589%	67%	18%	15%	89%	71%	51%	62%	71%	89%	51%	62%

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