TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV 
prediction
Bundesliga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction (Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 53% · Draw 22% · Hamburger SV 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 2.06–1.37. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 17:01 UK.
Published · Updated
Who will win TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are favoured at 53%, but the draw and a Hamburger SV win together still account for 47%. Recent form: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim LWLLLW, Hamburger SV WLLLDW (latest first).
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 86% | 14% | 1.16 |
| 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | 1.50 |
| 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | 2.23 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 |
| Hamburger SV win | 25% | 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.00 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 13 Dec 2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · BundesligaHoffenheim4HSV1Hoffenheim4–1HSV | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 25 Apr 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · BundesligaHSV1Hoffenheim2HSV1–2Hoffenheim | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 20 Sept 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 | Away | 1–3 | L |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | VfB Stuttgart | Home | 2–1 | W |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | Home | 2–3 | L |
| Sat, 29 Aug 2026 | 1. FC Köln | Away | 2–3 | L |
| Sat, 16 May 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Away | 0–4 | L |
| Sat, 9 May 2026 | SV Werder Bremen | Home | 1–0 | W |
Hamburger SV — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 | 1. FC Köln | Home | 2–1 | W |
| Sun, 13 Sept 2026 | RB Leipzig | Away | 0–5 | L |
| Sun, 6 Sept 2026 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Home | 0–5 | L |
| Sat, 29 Aug 2026 | Borussia Dortmund | Away | 0–2 | L |
| Sat, 16 May 2026 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Away | 1–1 | D |
| Sun, 10 May 2026 | SC Freiburg | Home | 3–2 | W |
What are the most likely scores?
Related
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
- Hamburger SV
- Bundesliga predictions
- Bundesliga Home win
- Bundesliga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier League Arsenal LeedsArsenalvLeeds | 62% | 24% | 13% | 41% | U3.5 79% | 68% | 21% | |
12:30 · Championship West Brom BirminghamWest BromvBirmingham | 39% | 30% | 31% | 38% | U3.5 81% | 66% | 19% | |
12:30 · Championship Swansea NorwichSwanseavNorwich | 44% | 26% | 30% | 54% | O1.5 78% | 78% | 32% | |