RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg prediction

Bundesliga · Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK

RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg prediction (Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UK): RB Leipzig 60% · Draw 20% · SV 07 Elversberg 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%. Most likely score: 2-1. Expected goals 2.23–1.23. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 62%, No 38%. Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%).

Published Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Leipzig vs Elversberg preview

Leipzig (7th, 9 pts) host Elversberg (6th, 10 pts) in the Bundesliga. Leipzig have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LLWWL) and Elversberg 7 points from 5 (WLDLW). Leipzig: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Our model makes Leipzig clear favourites at 60%, with Elversberg at 20%. Expected goals are 2.23 for Leipzig and 1.23 for Elversberg, and the most likely score is 2-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Bundesliga norm: Over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 62%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 67%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg?

RB Leipzig are clear favourites at 60%, with SV 07 Elversberg at 20%. Recent form: RB Leipzig LLWWLW, SV 07 Elversberg WLDLWW (latest first).

Leipzig won all 3 home games this season.

RB Leipzig

60%

Draw

20%

SV 07 Elversberg

20%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 67%.

Over 2.5 in all 3 Leipzig home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	86%	14%	1.16
2.5 goals	67%	33%	1.49
3.5 goals	46%	54%	2.20

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance: RB Leipzig score in about 89% of simulated outcomes and SV 07 Elversberg in about 72%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 6 Elversberg games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	62%	1.61
No	38%	2.63

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
RB Leipzig win	60%	1.67
Draw	20%	4.90
SV 07 Elversberg win	20%	5.03
Over 2.5	67%	1.49
Under 2.5	33%	3.05

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: RB Leipzig goals (rows) × SV 07 Elversberg goals (columns)
RB \ SV	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
1	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	6%	7%	4%	2%	1%	0%
4	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	3% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-1

10%

1-1

2-0

3-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Leipzig and Elversberg played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Leipzig, last 5

Leipzig, last 5 at home

Elversberg, last 5

Elversberg, last 5 away

Current streaks

Leipzig: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Leipzig and Elversberg.

How Leipzig and Elversberg compare this season

Stat	Leipzig (home, 3)	Elversberg (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	81%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	74%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	33% (1/3)	56%
BTTS	0% (0/3)	33% (1/3)	59%
Win %	100% (3/3)	33% (1/3)	52% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	4.67	1.33	1.84
Goals against per game	0.00	1.33	1.84

Bundesliga average from 54 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Leipzig	7	9	6
Elversberg	6	10	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Leipzig v Elversberg?: Our model makes Leipzig the more likely winner at 60%: Leipzig 60%, draw 20%, Elversberg 20%. Leipzig won all 3 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leipzig v Elversberg?: Over 2.5 goals is 67% and under 2.5 is 33%, with expected goals of 3.5. Over 2.5 in all 3 Leipzig home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Leipzig and Elversberg played recently?: Latest first: Leipzig LLWWL, Elversberg WLDLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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